We Have Never Been Stable

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schuylaar

Well-Known Member
@ttystikk and I were conversing about this after discussing our feelings about the economy in general.

What makes a recession? People stop spending..but where does it start?

Our findings: we both feel we are headed for recession, for different reasons. I'll let him explain his thoughts but here is what I am 'feeling':

I correctly predicted the housing bubble burst with Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy..that summer I noticed the phones stop ringing. I had been in my position for 8 years so I'm familiar with sales cycle and with taxes it's even more cyclical..now fast forward to 2017..Fortune 500's once again have stopped calling and those who typically had budget for my services either has been cut to $100:lol: or none at all. I had one customer who made a service purchase of $1200/monthly worth of goods..approved by their regional was cut to $0.. it was approved back in October; they cancelled their complete contract. In my business this is unheard of. Once it's budgeted for the year, it's good to go. I've heard that builders are telling their leasing offices that they must cut back from previous year..if your budget was $100, where do you go? Name brand four star hotels, are commiserating months at a time, over a $200 service purchase. I don't care that the market is doing well..something is up..something us way, way up.

If you look at our countries history..we've been plagued by mini recessions that no one remembers unless you do the research..1890's..1910..1929 etc.

Now Tty will tell you what he's noticed..trust me..he knows his math.
 
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tangerinegreen555

tangerinegreen555

Well-Known Member
There's a lot of outside influences.

The stock market seems too high. 401K accounts are going to get stabbed and bled out again.

A terrorist attack could jump start it.

Moving your money quietly out of stocks?
I did. A safe 4.5% is just fine by me.
 
S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
tangerinegreen555 said:
There's a lot of outside influences.

The stock market seems too high. 401K accounts are going to get stabbed and bled out again.

A terrorist attack could jump start it.

Moving your money quietly out of stocks?
I did. A safe 4.5% is just fine by me.
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Not putting it in stock. Going to start a new 401k..lost 25k total last time.

Consumer spending habits are the first to change and being in sales I have my finger on the pulse..I can feel the subtle changes.
 
SneekyNinja

SneekyNinja

Well-Known Member
schuylaar said:
@ttystikk and I were conversing about this after discussing our feelings about the economy in general.

What makes a recession? People stop spending..but where does it start?

Our findings: we both feel we are headed for recession, for different reasons. I'll let him explain his thoughts but here is what I am 'feeling':

I correctly predicted the housing bubble burst with Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy..that summer I noticed the phones stop ringing. I had been in my position for 8 years so I'm familiar with sales cycle and with taxes it's even more cyclical..now fast forward to 2017..Fortune 500's once again have stopped calling and those who typically had budget for my services either has been cut to $100:lol: or none at all. I had one customer who made a service purchase of $1200/monthly worth of goods..approved by their regional was cut to $0.. it was approved back in October; they cancelled their complete contract. In my business this is unheard of. Once it's budgeted for the year, it's good to go. I've heard that builders are telling their leasing offices that they must cut back from previous year..if your budget was $100, where do you go? Name brand four star hotels, are commiserating months at a time, over a $200 service purchase. I don't care that the market is doing well..something is up..something us way, way up.

If you look at our countries history..we've been plagued by mini recessions that no one remembers unless you do the research..1890's..1910..1929 etc.

Now Tty will tell you what he's noticed..trust me..he knows his math.
Click to expand...
Your "services" are completely non-essential and they can probably get the "product" in containers from China for 1/10th the price.

Newspaper sales are in the shitter too, doesn't mean there's a recession coming it just means people aren't willing to pay more than they need to anymore.
 
S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
SneekyNinja said:
Your "services" are completely non-essential and they can probably get the "product" in containers from China for 1/10th the price.

Newspaper sales are in the shitter too, doesn't mean there's a recession coming it just means people aren't willing to pay more than they need to anymore.
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Wrong. Have you ever walked into a luxury hotel and 'experienced' the person that walked in the door before you? If you have, shame on them..if you haven't, you can thank me.

Additionally, those who 'get it' understand what a 40% longer linger and 17% more buying decision in properly fragranced area means to them.

Are you a hotelier? I'd like to pass my card along..
 
ttystikk

ttystikk

Well-Known Member
Somehow the tag never got to my inbox.

I've noticed a lot of subtle signs, as well.

Nothing definitive, but they keep adding up.

The only difference between the first part of the last century and this one is how much faster everything happens these days.

You see, nothing fundamental was actually fixed after the Great Panic of 2007. The 'too big to fail' banksters used their political influence to get bailouts and they've spent the last decade gleefully recurring record profits and bonuses.

The homeowners who lost their homes got a bankruptcy on their record.

Things are getting ever more extreme politically and economically.

As soon as the first big bank heads for the exit, all the rest will crash the economy as they try to do the same.

There's no cushion in the system, any little shock will start the dominoes falling.

Europe is dealing with the prospect of the breakup of the EU, and a Greek default would to the balance. Or a Spanish one. Or an Italian one.

China's economy is dependent on exports to the US. If things are thriving, why is the world's largest container shipping company bankrupt? Why are companies cancelling contacts for new container ships?

What happens if the Chump makes good on his threat to start a war with North Korea?

I think it's time to cash out while the getting is good.
 
S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
ttystikk said:
Somehow the tag never got to my inbox.

I've noticed a lot of subtle signs, as well.

Nothing definitive, but they keep adding up.

The only difference between the first part of the last century and this one is how much faster everything happens these days.

You see, nothing fundamental was actually fixed after the Great Panic of 2007. The 'too big to fail' banksters used their political influence to get bailouts and they've spent the last decade gleefully recurring record profits and bonuses.

The homeowners who lost their homes got a bankruptcy on their record.

Things are getting ever more extreme politically and economically.

As soon as the first big bank heads for the exit, all the rest will crash the economy as they try to do the same.

There's no cushion in the system, any little shock will start the dominoes falling.

Europe is dealing with the prospect of the breakup of the EU, and a Greek default would to the balance. Or a Spanish one. Or an Italian one.

China's economy is dependent on exports to the US. If things are thriving, why is the world's largest container shipping company bankrupt? Why are companies cancelling contacts for new container ships?

What happens if the Chump makes good on his threat to start a war with North Korea?

I think it's time to cash out while the getting is good.
Click to expand...
Market dropped today.
 
SneekyNinja

SneekyNinja

Well-Known Member
schuylaar said:
Wrong. Have you ever walked into a luxury hotel and 'experienced' the person that walked in the door before you? If you have, shame on them..if you haven't, you can thank me.

Additionally, those who 'get it' understand what a 40% longer linger and 17% more buying decision in properly fragranced area means to them.

Are you a hotelier? I'd like to pass my card along..
Click to expand...
Maybe people could just shower more?
 
S

schuylaar

Well-Known Member
SneekyNinja said:
Maybe people could just shower more?
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Well there's freedom to have BO in thIs country..it's culture and there's nothing you can do about that..I made my decision to rid the world of malodor when I was in SanFransisco at Hilton and took a shuttle back to the airport.

I was seated way in back and there was a 10 footer in front..no one should have to be subject to that stench. The pungency was mustard gas level.
 
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