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We Have Never Been Stable

Discussion in 'Politics' started by schuylaar, Mar 20, 2017.

  1.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    @ttystikk and I were conversing about this after discussing our feelings about the economy in general.

    What makes a recession? People stop spending..but where does it start?

    Our findings: we both feel we are headed for recession, for different reasons. I'll let him explain his thoughts but here is what I am 'feeling':

    I correctly predicted the housing bubble burst with Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy..that summer I noticed the phones stop ringing. I had been in my position for 8 years so I'm familiar with sales cycle and with taxes it's even more cyclical..now fast forward to 2017..Fortune 500's once again have stopped calling and those who typically had budget for my services either has been cut to $100:lol: or none at all. I had one customer who made a service purchase of $1200/monthly worth of goods..approved by their regional was cut to $0.. it was approved back in October; they cancelled their complete contract. In my business this is unheard of. Once it's budgeted for the year, it's good to go. I've heard that builders are telling their leasing offices that they must cut back from previous year..if your budget was $100, where do you go? Name brand four star hotels, are commiserating months at a time, over a $200 service purchase. I don't care that the market is doing well..something is up..something us way, way up.

    If you look at our countries history..we've been plagued by mini recessions that no one remembers unless you do the research..1890's..1910..1929 etc.

    Now Tty will tell you what he's noticed..trust me..he knows his math.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
    ttystikk and HAF2 like this.
  2.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    So no one wants to talk about the recession that's on its way?
     
    ttystikk likes this.
  3.  
    tangerinegreen555

    tangerinegreen555 Well-Known Member

    There's a lot of outside influences.

    The stock market seems too high. 401K accounts are going to get stabbed and bled out again.

    A terrorist attack could jump start it.

    Moving your money quietly out of stocks?
    I did. A safe 4.5% is just fine by me.
     
    whitebb2727, HAF2 and schuylaar like this.
  4.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    Not putting it in stock. Going to start a new 401k..lost 25k total last time.

    Consumer spending habits are the first to change and being in sales I have my finger on the pulse..I can feel the subtle changes.
     
    ttystikk likes this.
  5.  
    fdd2blk

    fdd2blk Well-Known Member

  6.  
    SneekyNinja

    SneekyNinja Well-Known Member

    Your "services" are completely non-essential and they can probably get the "product" in containers from China for 1/10th the price.

    Newspaper sales are in the shitter too, doesn't mean there's a recession coming it just means people aren't willing to pay more than they need to anymore.
     
  7.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    Wrong. Have you ever walked into a luxury hotel and 'experienced' the person that walked in the door before you? If you have, shame on them..if you haven't, you can thank me.

    Additionally, those who 'get it' understand what a 40% longer linger and 17% more buying decision in properly fragranced area means to them.

    Are you a hotelier? I'd like to pass my card along..
     
  8.  
    heckler73

    heckler73 Well-Known Member


    As a matter of fact...



    I think he might be right on this, with regards to Mulvaney's likely response. That would be a tremendous disasta.
     
    Fogdog and schuylaar like this.
  9.  
    ttystikk

    ttystikk Well-Known Member

    Somehow the tag never got to my inbox.

    I've noticed a lot of subtle signs, as well.

    Nothing definitive, but they keep adding up.

    The only difference between the first part of the last century and this one is how much faster everything happens these days.

    You see, nothing fundamental was actually fixed after the Great Panic of 2007. The 'too big to fail' banksters used their political influence to get bailouts and they've spent the last decade gleefully recurring record profits and bonuses.

    The homeowners who lost their homes got a bankruptcy on their record.

    Things are getting ever more extreme politically and economically.

    As soon as the first big bank heads for the exit, all the rest will crash the economy as they try to do the same.

    There's no cushion in the system, any little shock will start the dominoes falling.

    Europe is dealing with the prospect of the breakup of the EU, and a Greek default would to the balance. Or a Spanish one. Or an Italian one.

    China's economy is dependent on exports to the US. If things are thriving, why is the world's largest container shipping company bankrupt? Why are companies cancelling contacts for new container ships?

    What happens if the Chump makes good on his threat to start a war with North Korea?

    I think it's time to cash out while the getting is good.
     
    Wilderb, Fogdog, HAF2 and 1 other person like this.
  10.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    Market dropped today.
     
    travisw and Fogdog like this.
  11.  
    ttystikk

    ttystikk Well-Known Member

    One percent is so common as to be irrelevant in the larger picture.

    If it dropped 1000 points instead of 200 that would be a sign.
     
    Fogdog and schuylaar like this.
  12.  
    ttystikk

    ttystikk Well-Known Member

    schuylaar likes this.
  13.  
    Rob Roy

    Rob Roy Well-Known Member

  14.  
    fdd2blk

    fdd2blk Well-Known Member


    Well that proves it. You're as fucking brilliant as Buck.
     
  15.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    The great unwinding, you heard it here first!:wink:
     
  16.  
    fdd2blk

    fdd2blk Well-Known Member


    How's your lawsuit going? Are you not allowed to talk about it? Why are you so reluctant to tell us about it? Do you feel stupid?
     
  17.  
    SneekyNinja

    SneekyNinja Well-Known Member

    Maybe people could just shower more?
     
  18.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

  19.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

    Well there's freedom to have BO in thIs country..it's culture and there's nothing you can do about that..I made my decision to rid the world of malodor when I was in SanFransisco at Hilton and took a shuttle back to the airport.

    I was seated way in back and there was a 10 footer in front..no one should have to be subject to that stench. The pungency was mustard gas level.
     
    ttystikk likes this.
  20.  
    schuylaar

    schuylaar Well-Known Member

     
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