What the heck is going on with pot prices?

max420thc · Jan 14, 2018

SchmoeJoe said:
California is the biggest legal market in the world. My personal philosophy as a grower has always been to ensure a superior quality product. Even if it costs a little more to produce having a more competitive product is worth it.

It doesn't cost more to produce a superior quality product.
Light dep so close to indoor it's not hardly noticeable . Almost no light bill, nutrients are normally pretty cheap unless you are paying someone else to add water to it for you.
Unless organic all nutrients are salt based.
If you are buying your nutes in a bottle you are over paying . Way over paying

SchmoeJoe · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
It is a pretty plant , but I would throw that bitch straight in the trash can.
It looks like you are container gardening and that means you probably do not get over 2 lb
If s normally with a lamp.
That still puts you in the top 5 percent of growers you are just not growing productively .
Weed sales by the gram and pound if I plant will not produce well get rid of it.
I get guys who try to upsale all the time. I want so much for this because it is a that.
The only thing that matters is the bottom line, you have bills to pay, if you have some bull shit plant that does not produce and because it does t produce increase the price of the product to offset the loss doesn't work well when you sell and grow commercially.
I heard it , well it's a this and a that,
Personally if you can't make money on a plant because it is so piss poor productive get rid of it.
There are lots of great strains that are productive.If someone tells me they want 3000 for a pound of weed that might sell for 4000 but I can buy a pound of weed that costs me 1500 and i can move it for 3000 guess what I'm buying?
When you ship something in the mail for example into a market for the same product someone is trying to sell weed they just bought let's say 100 lbs and was charged the same amount the guy just bought one lb for then the heavy hitter that was buying all yoir crop now . Not only is his product going to move slower the next time you see him he is going to beat you down on price.
Growers are cutting their own throats and do not even understand it.

People in this market just haven't caught on yet. In parts of Europe Amnesia Haze was/is one of the most popular strains and people gladly pay more for it because they understand that it takes longer to produce so it costs more to produce.

This is exactly how supply and demand works. If growers only grew the most productive varieties then that's all we'd have to choose from. GSC is a perfect example. It's one of the best known low yielders and it has a longer than average finish time but it's not going anywhere.

max420thc · Jan 14, 2018

SchmoeJoe said:
I've seen a few examples of what you're talking about. At a certain point you have to compromise quality to improve quantity or vice versa. The best model I've seen is light dep greenhouses with every climate control option you can think of and supplemental lights to be able to grow year round.

Ran properly they could easily hit 10+ per light and have a much lower cost of operation. Of course the local climate and seasonal variations will effect the bottom line but it's pretty much going to be the best option everywhere that isn't hot and humid year round.

I agree. Out door production and damn close to indoor quality.green houses can be heated.
The production per lamp is not a accurate comparison with light dep . The light dep uses mostly the sun.
I am helping a guy as we speak set up one with future plans of helping a guy in Michigan sometime the middle of this year set up one in Michigan.
The guy in Michigan is also setting up 150 gravitas indoor.
He's been growing for years but has no business setting up this grow .
He will go broke within two years because he can't produce enough per lamp to make it profitable .
I do not have my photos with me but I'm sure you could find some pics.
No you do not have to compromise quality and be very productive .
Quality is to do with the environment.
Production is in trimming and training it.

Budley Doright · Jan 14, 2018

MustardBottle said:
Just wait until Canada Legalizes in a few months and every stoner and his dog can start growing legally in heir basement. You can bet a literal ton of it will find its way south of the border every day of the week.

Legally grow 4 plants lol. Seriously doubt that's going to effect the big boys that are sending South. The problem was, not sure if it's still happening, but we could not touch the the prices of stuff coming out of CO heading east. That was about the time we shut down.

SchmoeJoe · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
It doesn't cost more to produce a superior quality product.
Light dep so close to indoor it's not hardly noticeable . Almost no light bill, nutrients are normally pretty cheap unless you are paying someone else to add water to it for you.
Unless organic all nutrients are salt based.
If you are buying your nutes in a bottle you are over paying . Way over paying

There are a number of bottled products that are made by processes that take specialised equipment and can't be replicated without the right facilities. They aren't all just a liquid suspension of something that you can buy in a dry form for half the price.

Producing higher quality at the very least means adding more steps to your process which means more labor. You can streamline any application of labor using the principle of economy of motion to make it more efficient but you will still have a higher cost in labor. Aside from the initial design and building and equipping your garden space to maintain the ideal conditions as efficiently as possible most of the things that can be to increase quality will always have recurring costs for either the extra labor and/or materials. Even if there's a cheaper non liquid alternative to a product that you might use to help improve quality it's still something you have to buy on a perpetual basis so it's still going to raise costs.

Budley Doright · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
It's not just growing mushrooms, all these guys calling themselves growers should be able to grow anything and make a good living,
Go check out YouTube urban Gardner. (Just for reference) the guy is growing bean sprouts and selling them at 20 dollars a flat. You can ten million flats in three days

I know, I was just referring to the price of morel's lol. I have certified organic fields presently growing feed crops used at an organic dairy. Find a niche market and fill it. As long as the stuff stays in vogue you've got it the bag so to speak lol.

MustardBottle · Jan 14, 2018

Budley Doright said:
Legally grow 4 plants lol. Seriously doubt that's going to effect the big boys that are sending South. The problem was, not sure if it's still happening, but we could not touch the the prices of stuff coming out of CO heading east. That was about the time we shut down.

No, what will happen is the legal sales infrastructure will have to start buying from LPs only, most people will start buying legal product, so all the previous grey market people will need to find a place to sell their crops. You're right about the 4 plant limit, but come on... did that eve stop anyone before? There will be even less risk once its legal. Police won't care anymore unless they have actionable evidence a large scale grow is happening.

max420thc · Jan 14, 2018

SchmoeJoe said:
People in this market just haven't caught on yet. In parts of Europe Amnesia Haze was/is one of the most popular strains and people gladly pay more for it because they understand that it takes longer to produce so it costs more to produce.

This is exactly how supply and demand works. If growers only grew the most productive varieties then that's all we'd have to choose from. GSC is a perfect example. It's one of the best known low yielders and it has a longer than average finish time but it's not going anywhere.

Yea people ( some are willing to pay more) I prefer to cater to the people in the center because there is a lot more of them with a lot more money over all to spend.
Now lets think about this for a second,
How much more are they willing to pay more? Twice as much more?
Hell no they are not willing to pay it.
You lets just say for example sale a pound for 2500 , your market is fewer people first off, you plan t only produces a third what a 1600 lb plant will .
Who is earning more money?
Here is the real big kicker for you.
If I bought the pound for 1600 sold it for 2500 in most markets the guy or two after that can still earn a buck further down stream , so they but the weed fast and more of it that makes them money.
If I paid you 2500 for a lb but the most in many markets I can get out of it is around 4000.
I think some people need to calm down about the prices, they will go back up by the end of the year the reason is normally be the end of the year the outdoors Cali crop is sold out . This year a huge fire wiped out a lot of those crops, I suspect by mid summer the supply will have dried up and prices will go back up. Not like the good times when we were saying for 4000 a lb and could move volume with that because everyone in the chain still made money.
People in the chain can make things move faster at 1600 because there is profit . At 2600 a pound your chain has only one link

max420thc · Jan 14, 2018

MustardBottle said:
No, what will happen is the legal sales infrastructure will have to start buying from LPs only, most people will start buying legal product, so all the previous grey market people will need to find a place to sell their crops. You're right about the 4 plant limit, but come on... did that eve stop anyone before? There will be even less risk once its legal. Police won't care anymore unless they have actionable evidence a large scale grow is happening.

Bull shit cete and utter bull shit.
Along with legal weed comes tax's and expensive regulations that will drive the price of the product up.
Right now the black market supplies better quality weed at a better price to the consumer than the free market.
Go look in the dispensarys in Michigan and Washington right now. Compete garbage.
Weed like anything else goes to the highest bidder .
The dispensarys do not pay the grower shit normally and the black market pays a decent price and buys more time than the dispensarys .
If you got rid of the black market growers would not be able to make a living in the industry.
I've heard pee contain and rightfully so about the quality of the bud in Colorado dispensarys , rightfully so.
That's not because there is not good weed in Colorado it is that the good weed is sold to the highest bidder, normally out of state

Terps · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
I agree. Out door production and damn close to indoor quality.green houses can be heated.
The production per lamp is not a accurate comparison with light dep . The light dep uses mostly the sun.
I am helping a guy as we speak set up one with future plans of helping a guy in Michigan sometime the middle of this year set up one in Michigan.
The guy in Michigan is also setting up 150 gravitas indoor.
He's been growing for years but has no business setting up this grow .
He will go broke within two years because he can't produce enough per lamp to make it profitable .
I do not have my photos with me but I'm sure you could find some pics.
No you do not have to compromise quality and be very productive .
Quality is to do with the environment.
Production is in trimming and training it.

Light Dep Greenhouse is the way to go and much more cost effective our was just over 46k turnkey ready to plant.

Terps · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
Bull shit cete and utter bull shit.
Along with legal weed comes tax's and expensive regulations that will drive the price of the product up.
Right now the black market supplies better quality weed at a better price to the consumer than the free market.
Go look in the dispensarys in Michigan and Washington right now. Compete garbage.
Weed like anything else goes to the highest bidder .
The dispensarys do not pay the grower shit normally and the black market pays a decent price and buys more time than the dispensarys .
If you got rid of the black market growers would not be able to make a living in the industry.
I've heard pee contain and rightfully so about the quality of the bud in Colorado dispensarys , rightfully so.
That's not because there is not good weed in Colorado it is that the good weed is sold to the highest bidder, normally out of state

From what I see in the market the only way the small farmer will be able to survive the incoming price drops will be to grow and sell out of ones own dispensary. Keeping the profit in house.

SchmoeJoe · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
I agree. Out door production and damn close to indoor quality.green houses can be heated.
The production per lamp is not a accurate comparison with light dep . The light dep uses mostly the sun.
I am helping a guy as we speak set up one with future plans of helping a guy in Michigan sometime the middle of this year set up one in Michigan.
The guy in Michigan is also setting up 150 gravitas indoor.
He's been growing for years but has no business setting up this grow .
He will go broke within two years because he can't produce enough per lamp to make it profitable .
I do not have my photos with me but I'm sure you could find some pics.
No you do not have to compromise quality and be very productive .
Quality is to do with the environment.
Production is in trimming and training it.

One of the seasonal variations with light dep is that you have to use more than supplemental light to run year round. For seasonal extension of the veg period you still need a high load of lighting when the sun goes down but it's still way more efficient. That said lighting is the single highest cost factor so it's still going to be the best way to comparatively measure efficiency of one production style to the next.

As far as quality verses quantity the highest indoor yields I've seen were de with either rdwc or large fabric pots, usually with something like a 50/50 coco perlite mix and pumped full of synthetic nutrients and always hitting the top end of usable co2.

In either case you can't maintain a strong living rhizosphere so the quality is always less. Between that and the fact that high co2 levels can suppress ethylene production you don't get the same quality.

All of that being said, one of my biggest peeves is when people tell me that I'm wrong about something because they've never seen it when I know for a fact that I have seen it. One of my favorite quotes is something like "The absence of proof is not proof of absence". I can't say that I've seen it all and I have to stay open to the possibility that you've seen some things that I haven't but it just hasn't been my experience.

SchmoeJoe · Jan 14, 2018

Terps said:
From what I see in the market the only way the small farmer will be able to survive the incoming price drops will be to grow and sell out of ones own dispensary. Keeping the profit in house.

And even processing your own extracts if you're in a state that allows that level of vertical integration.

max420thc · Jan 14, 2018

SchmoeJoe said:
There are a number of bottled products that are made by processes that take specialised equipment and can't be replicated without the right facilities. They aren't all just a liquid suspension of something that you can buy in a dry form for half the price.

Producing higher quality at the very least means adding more steps to your process which means more labor. You can streamline any application of labor using the principle of economy of motion to make it more efficient but you eill still have a higher cost in labor. Aside from the initial design and building and equipping your garden space to maintain the ideal conditions as efficiently as possible most of the things that can be to increase quality will always have recurring costs for either the extra labor and/or materials. Even if there's a cheaper non liquid alternative to a product that you might use to help improve quality it's still something you have to buy on a perpetual basis so it's still going to raise costs.

I've seen about every nutrient system out there. Almost all of them are salt based.
I will be in a area lets just say around mendacino tomorrow. I would put up many of the growers outdoor quality there against anyone's indoor and they mainly use a single nutrient system.
Low cost one at that because these guys are feeding thousands of plants at a time.
Mostly my experience with bid boosters and additives is you fuck up the taste of the weed by pushing the plant to bed.
Way way more production can be obtained through proper pl t training than any bud boosters you will ever get or a super this or that.

Growers tend to dump piles of shit all over the plant and do not train it for production .
I can train a hundred plants every week in around 1 hour

Budley Doright · Jan 14, 2018

max420thc said:
I agree. Out door production and damn close to indoor quality.green houses can be heated.
The production per lamp is not a accurate comparison with light dep . The light dep uses mostly the sun.
I am helping a guy as we speak set up one with future plans of helping a guy in Michigan sometime the middle of this year set up one in Michigan.
The guy in Michigan is also setting up 150 gravitas indoor.
He's been growing for years but has no business setting up this grow .
He will go broke within two years because he can't produce enough per lamp to make it profitable .
I do not have my photos with me but I'm sure you could find some pics.
No you do not have to compromise quality and be very productive .
Quality is to do with the environment.
Production is in trimming and training it.

So if he's got you then why is it he has no buisness doing this? Not a great endorsement of your consulting skills lol. And IMO quality starts with strain and then it's up to the grower to bring out the best. I'm not sure I agree with the production limited to trimming and training. Would environment not also be key to production which I take to mean yield? Also location dictates setup/profit models. For a year round perpetual greenhouse, Michigan IMO, would not lend itself to be a great buisness model versus an indoor model but I could be wrong. I've got a buddy who has a 100' x 45' green house and he has had to shut it down in the winter due to heating costs, in the summer he is always struggling with heat issues. Mind you in the summer he does enough volume to carry through the winter. Also this way he gets to head to Florida for 4 months lol.

Terps · Jan 14, 2018

SchmoeJoe said:
And even processing your own extracts if you're in a state that allows that level of vertical integration.

Absolutely and making your own edibles. What we are looking into is THC infused Beer. I have a batch brewing I put a little crystalline into we will see how it turns out lol. I tried using some reg extract before and it tasted horrible. However I do not think crystalline has much taste other than a bit of sweet notes.

max420thc · Jan 14, 2018

SchmoeJoe said:
One of the seasonal variations with light dep is that you have to use more than supplemental light to run year round. For seasonal extension of the veg period you still need a high load of lighting when the sun goes down but it's still way more efficient. That said lighting is the single highest cost factor so it's still going to be the best way to comparatively measure efficiency of one production style to the next.

As far as quality verses quantity the highest indoor yields I've seen were de with either rdwc or large fabric pots, usually with something like a 50/50 coco perlite mix and pumped full of synthetic nutrients and always hitting the top end of usable co2.

In either case you can't maintain a strong living rhizosphere so the quality is always less. Between that and the fact that high co2 levels can suppress ethylene production you don't get the same quality.

All of that being said, one of my biggest peeves is when people tell me that I'm wrong about something because they've never seen it when I know for a fact that I have seen it. One of my favorite quotes is something like "The absence of proof is not proof of absence". I can't say that I've seen it all and I have to stay open to the possibility that you've seen some things that I haven't but it just hasn't been my experience.

The highest yields I have seen come off flood and drain tables,
But they limit the grower in a lot of ways. Next is Scrooged properly with hydro.
We of course are talking indoor.
Yes lighting is expensive that's why a lot indoor guys go to Colorado because power is really cheap.
No I would not compare a indoor grow using nothing but lights to a light dep green house.
Its just not a sequel comparison because one is a green house

Terps · Jan 14, 2018

Budley Doright said:
So if he's got you then why is it he has no buisness doing this? Not a great endorsement of your consulting skills lol. And IMO quality starts with strain and then it's up to the grower to bring out the best. I'm not sure I agree with the production limited to trimming and training. Would environment not also be key to production which I take to mean yield? Also location dictates setup/profit models. For a year round perpetual greenhouse, Michigan IMO, would not lend itself to be a great buisness model versus an indoor model but I could be wrong. I've got a buddy who has a 100' x 45' green house and he has had to shut it down in the winter due to heating costs, in the summer he is always struggling with heat issues. Mind you in the summer he does enough volume to carry through the winter. Also this way he gets to head to Florida for 4 months lol.

It is the old saying it takes money to make money. you have to factor heating and lightning costs into your business plan. It is not like you can go out and get a SBA loan for a pot farm. Even with those costs there is still tons of money to be made. A greenhouses heating and lightning costs are far less than the equivalent indoor grow.

Budley Doright · Jan 14, 2018

MustardBottle said:
No, what will happen is the legal sales infrastructure will have to start buying from LPs only, most people will start buying legal product, so all the previous grey market people will need to find a place to sell their crops. You're right about the 4 plant limit, but come on... did that eve stop anyone before? There will be even less risk once its legal. Police won't care anymore unless they have actionable evidence a large scale grow is happening.

You said all the product will now head south and that's not happening. As for the Canadian market I doubt the projected retail rate is going to stop the gray market here, it may actually help it, I know I could certainly under cut the proposed $10 a gram lol. There is a glut, or was when I was working due to product coming east from west, we lost our market in the east. Canada going so called legal will have no effect on the States at all IMO. Maybe I'm wrong but I've been there.

SchmoeJoe · Jan 14, 2018

Terps said:
Light Dep Greenhouse is the way to go and much more cost effective our was just over 46k turnkey ready to plant.

I had to shut everything down just after getting it all set up and dialed in but if I run just the top yielders I can pull 2 21 pound crops out of both of my 12X32 manual light dep hoophouses that cost me a total of 2k not including soil for a total of about 84 pounds a year. That's out of the backyard of the duplex I live in.

If I had the room for more separate houses I wouldn't have to give each crop a 30 day veg after planting the beds in the greenhouse. With the room for two more I could crop every 30 days for total of 7 21 pound crops from 4k in greenhouses. If I had the space and available utilities I could run them year round and get that 20+ twelve times. And that 240 pounds is working off of the plant numbers I'm allowed with one medical card.

I can only imagine having the commercial set up.

What the heck is going on with pot prices?

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member