Another Republican President, Another Recession.

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
I don't have a crystal ball or anything, and Russia crushing the global economy with Putin's temper tantrum in Ukraine after losing his favorite political puppets in the last few elections is not good for our economy. But, for real anything Deutsch Bank says after the shit it has pulled makes me question their motives for crying 'recession'.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-inflation-brian-deese-1bdd2c2215ec6d430ffcf1ecc218c237Screen Shot 2022-04-08 at 11.56.50 AM.png
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy faces plenty of threats: War in Ukraine, high grocery bills, spiking gasoline prices, splintered supply chains, the lingering pandemic and rising interest rates that slow growth.

The Biden White House is betting the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand these threats, but there are growing fears of a coming economic slump among voters and some Wall Street analysts.

The next few months will test whether President Joe Biden built a durable recovery full of jobs with last year’s $1.9 trillion relief package, or an economy overfed by government aid that could tip into a downturn. On the line for Democrats ahead of the midterm elections is whether voters see firsthand in their lives that inflation can be tamed and the economy can manage to run hot without overheating.

Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters this week that the 3.6% unemployment rate and last year’s robust growth puts the U.S. in a safe place compared to the rest of the world.

“The core question is whether the strength of the US economy is now an asset or a liability,” Deese said. “What we have done over the course of the last 15 months is driven a uniquely strong economic recovery in the United States, which positions us uniquely well to deal with the challenges ahead.”

But others see an economy that could struggle to preserve growth while reducing inflation now running at a 40-year high of 7.9%. The Federal Reserve has signaled a series of benchmark interest rate increases and other policies to slow inflation this year, yet Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has destabilized the global energy and food markets in ways that could push prices upward.

Deutsche Bank on Tuesday became the first major financial institution to forecast a U.S. recession. And Harvard University economist Larry Summers — a Democrat and former treasury secretary — noted that the U.S. economy has gone into recession within two years each time inflation eclipsed 4% and unemployment was below 5% as they are now.

Joe LaVorgna, who worked in the Trump White House and is now chief economist for the Americas at Natixis, said he expects economic growth this year to be just below 1%, a potentially dangerous level.

While household balance sheets are solid and unemployment low, wages are not keeping up with inflation, which could dampen consumer spending. And supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs will be additional drags.

“The reason why you have a recession when the economy is growing 1% is it’s like a weakened immune system,” LaVorgna said. “Any negative event, even a small one, is going to throw you off course and stall speed becomes a recession.”

Still, because of the strong labor market and household savings, LaVorgna also anticipates that any downturn would be mild.

So far, consumer spending has been healthy even if the public views the economy as anemic.

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans believe the economy is in poor shape, according to a poll last month by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Yet Bank of America noted that total debit and credit card spending in March was up 11%from a year ago, and its analysts concluded households are “strong enough to weather the storm provided it doesn’t persist too long.”

There are also signs that consumers are adjusting as higher oil prices have led average gasoline costs to hit $4.15 a gallon, according to AAA. Gas costs have fallen in the past week, but they’re still up 45% from a year ago.

One consequence of higher prices is that Americans began to use less oil and gas. The U.S. consumed a daily average of 21.9 million barrels during the first full week of February; the figure fell 9% to 19.9 million barrels during the first week of April, according to the Energy Information Administration. That decline is larger than the normal seasonal drop-off in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. Gasoline usage has dropped more than 6% during the same period.

A recent Goldman Sachs research note stood out to Biden administration officials because it suggested that job growth and pay increases would cushion the economy from higher commodity prices. Because of the strong labor market, the economy is better protected from commodity shocks than in the recessions of 1974, 1980 and 1990, as well as the 2008 financial crisis.

The White House has watched with some frustration as the public conversation about the economy has been reduced to inflation, believing that largely ignores the strength of the labor market and the idea that families are able to manage the higher prices because of the coronavirus relief provided earlier.

The administration believes that Fed rate increases as well as a drop in deficit spending this year will help to lower inflation. But the key message that the White House wants to deliver in response to public fears about the economy is that Biden understands their concerns.

The challenge, however, is that many Americans are so focused on inflation that they believe the job market — and wider economy — is weaker than it actually is. That means the White House has to make a nuanced case in which it recognizes the economic weaknesses but repeats the low unemployment rate again, again and again so that it lodges in the public mind.

The doubts about the economy — despite the solid jobs numbers — are “a signal that we need to continue to make that case clearly and unambiguously,” said Deese.
 

cannabineer

Ursus marijanus
I don't have a crystal ball or anything, and Russia crushing the global economy with Putin's temper tantrum in Ukraine after losing his favorite political puppets in the last few elections is not good for our economy. But, for real anything Deutsch Bank says after the shit it has pulled makes me question their motives for crying 'recession'.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-inflation-brian-deese-1bdd2c2215ec6d430ffcf1ecc218c237View attachment 5115169
Judging by that faint clink when I walk into something, I am beginning to suspect that one of mine are.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://www.rawstory.com/the-jobs-market-favors-workers-for-the-first-time-in-a-half-century-no-one-in-the-press-corps-can-hear-it/Screen Shot 2022-04-09 at 2.14.00 PM.png
It’s easy to forget how dire the job market was – and just about everything was – during the last year of the Trump presidency.

Americans were forced to consider theft and murder to make sure their families had enough toilet paper amid a once-a-century plague that will, by the time it’s over, have killed more than a million of us.

I guess we’re just supposed to pretend that never happened, like a fresh hell of a sermon interrupted by the sudden toot of a pastor’s fart – or Donald Trumps’ trademarks in China – or Michael Avenatti.

But letting the memory of the wreckage left behind by Republican presidents is why we get so many more Republican presidents.

So prepare for a haunting flashback.

Before 2020, America had never seen more than a million weekly unemployment claims, not even during the Great Recession.

Late in March 2020, nearly 3 million workers filed claims.

In a week.

That was followed by 5.9 million, then 6.1 million. Pretty much the populations of Los Angeles and Chicago combined were out of work.

In a week.

That weekly hemorrhaging didn’t drop below a million until last August. It didn’t hit pre-pandemic levels until last October.

The American Rescue Plan – along with various pandemic-related reprieves – built on previous and considerable efforts to soften the pain of the pandemic by putting money into workers’ pockets.

The result of this sort of bottom-up economics?

An explosion of job growth unlike any seen before.

We are now seeing the lowest unemployment claims in more than 50 years. 2021 was literally the best year of job growth ever recorded.

You’d think that’d be big news.

Sure, if the president were Republican.

Look, it’s easy to pretend this remarkable recovery, which has seen all jobs lost regained six years faster than it took the job market to recover from the Great Recession, was inevitable or predictable.

It wasn’t.

“Pre-Rescue Act, CBO projected the unemployment rate would be 5.1 percent this past quarter, not go below 4 percent until 2026, and would never go below 3.9 percent. In fact, it fell to 3.6 percent in March,” Seth Hanlon, a former special assistant to President Obama for economic policy, noted.

You may not be aware of the good news.

You’re not alone.

A recent poll found only 12 percent of Americans knew we’d just experienced the best year of job growth ever. In comparison, 43 percent of our fellow citizens believe in the existence of demons.

What explains this catastrophic cognitive dissonance?

Some of it is complicated.

Much of the good news has been buried in constant positive revisions by the government of job numbers. That process dulled deadlines.

It’s also hard to celebrate the good news during a pandemic that’s still killing the unvaccinated, immunocompromised and the unlucky.

(And anyway, work sucks.)

But the simple reason for Americans not knowing how effective the American Rescue Plan has been is psychological abuse.

The Washington press corps, warped by the influence of rightwing media, tends to ignore good job news under Democratic presidencies.

Consider this: Do you know more jobs were created in 2014, the year Obamacare went into effect, than any year so far in the century before 2021? That’s after five years of Republicans predicting the opposite?

What’s going on now is more nefarious, though, It comes from people who know better. They understand well this newfound labor power.

It’s Corporate America.

That’s why workers having the best job security in their lives is continually framed not as victory for Joe Sixpack, but as a crisis.

"US businesses are not laying off workers because they know the enormous challenges they're facing in filling open positions," Ryan Sweet, of Moody's Analytics, told Reuters. "If initial claims remain below 200,000 for a period of time, it will raise a red flag with the Fed."

Not enough layoffs should raise a red flag?

Is the job market too good?

(How dare you ask for a raise! I should be on my superyacht!)

These Scrooge-before-Ghosts-Scared-Him headlines are more common than headlines about the balance of power shifting toward the interests of labor. An excellent example of this comes courtesy of Axios: “Worker shortage thwarts Biden’s ‘millions’ of jobs pledge.”

More nefarious, however, is the fixation by the press corps on the allegation that “inflation” is driven by workers' newfound advantages.

For Republicans, the advantages of discounting the best job market for workers in half a century are obvious. They need to justify resuming power. For Corporate America, record profits are not enough.

They are acutely aware of the success of unionizing efforts at an Amazon warehouse and at multiple Starbucks’ locations. They see how hard it is to hire when workers don’t live in terror of unemployment.

They see Democratic majorities in the Congress having the power, though not yet the votes, to clawback some of the massive giveaways corporations racked up during the Trump administration.

And they want their layoffs back.

Unfortunately, the press corps is happy to help.

So is the Fed – with rate increases likely to deflate the jobs market than help mitigate inflation, which has as much to do with the pandemic and the flimsiness of anti-worker supply chains as anything.

Workers haven’t had much to celebrate for a long time. It’s hard to celebrate an economy fundamentally rigged to fluff the super rich.

But we better understand the power we have.

Corporations want it back, fast.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I don't have a crystal ball or anything, and Russia crushing the global economy with Putin's temper tantrum in Ukraine after losing his favorite political puppets in the last few elections is not good for our economy. But, for real anything Deutsch Bank says after the shit it has pulled makes me question their motives for crying 'recession'.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-business-inflation-brian-deese-1bdd2c2215ec6d430ffcf1ecc218c237View attachment 5115169
A roaring economy and low unemployment mean nothing to these assholes when the dog whistle blows. Remember these people are actively trying to screw themselves, as long as you get screwed too.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://www.rawstory.com/russian-oligarch-sanctions/
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The powerful real estate lobby appears to be siding with oligarchs in opposing tougher new laws that would prevent them from hiding their assets in U.S. property purchases.

Even before Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine Washington lawmakers were crafting legislation that would shred the secrecy veil that hides the identities of foreign nationals who purchase billions of dollars of U.S. real estate every year. Momentum for those reforms only has grown since Russia's invasion and the worldwide focus on seizing oligarchs' assets.

Politico reports that House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) soon plans to introduce legislation to strengthen anti-corruption laws related to the industry. And Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), is pressuring the Treasury unit known as FinCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network), to craft strict rules to cut down on money laundering through property holdings.

“American real estate can’t be a dark repository for oligarch money,” Whitehouse told Politico.

But the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the industry’s biggest lobbying group, is resisting powerful reforms, instead calling for “tailored reforms that address specific issues,” according to spokesperson Patrick Newton.

“This approach focuses on illegal activity while minimizing any negative impact on the real estate economy, which makes up nearly one-fifth of the overall U.S. economy,” Newton said. “NAR has confidence that targeted and effective policy will prevail in the rule-making process.”

NAR has a huge stake in the issue. According to its own industry research, foreigners made up 8.6 percent of all commercial buyers in 2021 and 59 percent of commercial real estate transactions in the U.S. that included buyers from overseas involved all-cash purchases between 2016 and 2020.

Under today's laws, anyone, including a foreign national, can form an anonymous company and have that entity use cash to purchase residential or commercial real estate. That's one way oligarchs and others have been parking their money in the U.S. That’s a key reason that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in December, “There’s a good argument that, right now, the best place to hide and launder ill-gotten gains is actually the United States.”
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
https://www.rawstory.com/greg-abbott-food-supply/Screen Shot 2022-04-13 at 5.57.51 PM.png
A long trail of delivery trucks are backed up at the U.S.-Mexico border because the Texas governor is refusing to allow them to come into the United States without additional inspections by the Texas state troopers. Typically it's the federal government that inspects trucks. The decision is creating a massive backup at the border.

The Texas Tribune reported this week that the busiest trade crossing, the bridge connecting Pharr and Reynosa is the choke point. On the border Monday, the trucks were backed up for miles. It was the fifth day in a row they were dealing with the blockage. As a result, producer importers canceled orders.

Avocados, broccoli, peppers, strawberries and tomatoes are among the things being brought into the United States. Berries like strawberries are the largest import into the US, with bananas not far behind.

“One of our customers canceled the order because we didn’t deliver on time,” said Sterling Fresh Inc. sales manager Modesto Guerra. “It’s something beyond our control.”

At a time when Americans are frustrated over inflation and additional costs, Abbott's backup is significantly slashing supply and access in the United States, the White House said in a statement Wednesday.

"Governor Abbott's unnecessary and redundant inspections of trucks transiting ports of entry between Texas and Mexico are causing significant disruptions to the food and automobile supply chains, delaying manufacturing, impacting jobs, and raising prices for families in Texas and across the country," said press secretary Jen Psaki. "Local businesses and trade associations are calling on Governor Abbott to reverse the decision because trucks are facing lengthy delays exceeding 5 hours at some border crossings and commercial traffic has dropped by as much as 60 percent. The continuous flow of legitimate trade and travel and CBP's ability to do its job should not be obstructed. Governor Abbott's actions are impacting people's jobs and the livelihoods of hardworking American families."
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/13/statement-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-on-the-impact-of-texas-border-delays/
Screen Shot 2022-04-13 at 6.34.00 PM.png
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
lol @ how hard this guy tries to find something wrong with the completely factual statement Biden made about Putin's invasion impacts on inflation, by pretending like the cherry picked edit quote twitter trolls posted has merit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/15/bidens-claim-70-inflation-jump-was-due-putins-price-hike/Screen Shot 2022-04-15 at 5.16.06 PM.png
“What people don’t know is that 70 percent of the increase in inflation was the consequence of Putin’s price hike because of the impact on oil prices. Seventy percent.”

— President Biden, remarks at the North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University in Greensboro, N.C., April 14

Two days after the Labor Department reported that the consumer price index had risen to 8.5 percent, the fastest 12-month pace since 1981, the president made the remarks above, appearing to pin much of the blame for the dismal inflation report on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Energy and food prices can be volatile, and so many economists focus on the “core” inflation rate that excludes those items. But even that showed a rate of 6.5 percent or about 25 percent lower than the overall rate.

So how can Biden make this claim? Many readers were eager for an answer — especially since some people on Twitter truncated his comment to leave off “because of the impact on oil prices,” making it seem especially absurd.

Let’s dig into the weeds. It turns out he’s not referring to the headline inflation number.

The Facts

The individual items in the CPI report make for grim reading. Meat, poultry, fish and eggs rose 13.7 percent from March 2021 to March 2022, used cars and trucks rose 35.3 percent, airline fares rose 23.6 percent, butter jumped 12.5 percent, coffee rose 11.2 percent rose and apparel rose 6.8 percent.

Gasoline prices rose 48 percent, while overall energy prices rose 32 percent.

Energy makes up only 7.547 percent of the basket of goods in the CPI, so even with that big jump, how does Biden get to 70 percent?

Without saying so directly, he’s referring to the monthly change in prices, not the annual change.

Let’s go through the math, using the monthly numbers.

Prices rose 1.2 percent from February to March. (That translates to a 15.9 percent annual rate.) Now let’s express this increase in basis points, which is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. So a 1.2 percent increase would be 120 basis points.

Energy prices rose 11 percent last month. Since energy is 7.547 percent of the basket, we multiple that figure by 11. That gives us 83 basis points. That is then divided by the overall number of 120 basis points (83/120), yielding 69.1 percent. In other words, that’s how much energy prices contributed to the monthly increase. Biden rounded that up to 70 percent.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers did a similar calculation in a tweet it posted April 12, after the report was issued.

How did Biden set up this line in his remarks? He said: “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has driven up gas prices and food prices all over the world. Ukraine and Russia are the one and two largest wheat producers in the world. We’re three. They’re shut down. We saw that in yesterday’s inflation data.”

Many people might believe the president was referring to the headline annual number in the inflation report — 8.5 percent — and that Biden was saying 70 percent of that figure was attributable to an increase in energy costs. We certainly did when we first heard this line. But if energy prices had not risen at all in March, the 12-month increase in prices still would have been 7.6 percent.

A White House official pointed to the CEA tweet as an explanation for Biden’s comment, saying it should have been clear he was referring just to one month’s data as it would not be logical to claim a war that started less than two months ago was responsible for a year’s worth of inflation. He noted that White House press secretary Jen Psaki earlier in the week referred to one-month data: “While energy accounted for 70 percent of the monthly inflation in March on CPI data, it counted for a substantial portion of PPI [Producer Price Index] inflation as well,” she told reporters Wednesday.

Another way to look at it: Excluding the increase in energy prices from last month’s 1.2 percent increase still translates into an annual rate of almost 5 percent per year.
(That’s 31 percent of a 15.9 percent annual rate.) That can’t be blamed on the Russian invasion — and we highly doubt Biden would have thought such a high inflation rate would have been acceptable a year ago.

The Pinocchio Test

This is one of those clever talking points that pose a conundrum when doing the Pinocchio Test. Biden’s math is defensible, especially because his full quote — not the truncated one circulating on Twitter — specifically refers to the impact of oil prices.

But at the same time, ordinary people might certainly have assumed he was referring to the 12-month inflation rate, not the one-month figure. Moreover, even not counting energy costs, the inflation number is relatively high. Most Americans care about the inflation rate over the past year, not the past month.

We went back and forth over whether some level of Pinocchios was warranted. We were tempted to award Two Pinocchios, essentially half true. We certainly would be more comfortable if Biden had referred specifically to monthly inflation figures. But he did refer to the invasion that began 50 days ago. So we will leave this unrated and let readers decide for themselves.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Another example of state level Republican led states making the citizens of their states lives harder in the aftermath of the Trump/Republican led economic collapse that the Democrats are still working to clean up.

https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-nebraska-iowa-des-moines-4ff5e0d51f61e6704f44dfc31279376aScreen Shot 2022-04-16 at 2.07.07 PM.png
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Month by month, more of the roughly 40 million Americans who get help buying groceries through the federal food stamp program are seeing their benefits plunge even as the nation struggles with the biggest increase in food costs in decades.

The payments to low-income individuals and families are dropping as governors end COVID-19 disaster declarations and opt out of an ongoing federal program that made their states eligible for dramatic increases in SNAP benefits, also known as food stamps. The U.S. Department of Agriculture began offering the increased benefit in April 2020 in response to surging unemployment after the COVID-19 pandemic swept over the country.

The result is that depending on the politics of a state, individuals and families in need find themselves eligible for significantly different levels of help buying food.

Nebraska took the most aggressive action anywhere in the country, ending the emergency benefits four months into the pandemic in July 2020 in a move Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts said was necessary to “show the rest of the country how to get back to normal.”

Since then, nearly a dozen states with Republican leadership have taken similar action, with Iowa this month being the most recent place to slash the benefits. Benefits also will be cut in Wyoming and Kentucky in the next month. Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota and Tennessee have also scaled back the benefits.

Republican leaders argue that the extra benefits were intended to only temporarily help people forced out of work by the pandemic. Now that the virus has eased, they maintain, there is no longer a need to offer the higher payments at a time when businesses in most states are struggling to find enough workers.

But the extra benefits also help out families in need at a time of skyrocketing prices for food. Recipients receive at least $95 per month under the program, but some individuals and families typically eligible for only small benefits can get hundreds of dollars in extra payments each month.

The entire program would come to a halt if the federal government decides to end its public health emergency, though the Biden administration so far hasn’t signaled an intention to do so.

For Tara Kramer, 45, of Des Moines, the decision by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds to end the emergency payments starting April 1 meant her monthly SNAP benefit plunged from $250 in March to $20 in April. Kramer, who has a genetic disorder that can cause intense pain, said the extra money enabled her to buy healthier food that made her feel better and help her to live a more active life.

“My heart sank,” Kramer said. “All the memories from before the emergency allotment came rushing back.”

Alex Murphy, a spokesman for Reynolds, noted the extra benefits were always intended to help people who lost jobs because of the pandemic and said, “we have to return to pre-pandemic life.” Murphy pointed out that Iowa has over 86,000 job openings listed on a state unemployment website.

But Kramer said she’s not able to work and that even getting out of her apartment can be a struggle at times.

Vince Hall, who oversees public policy for the nationwide food bank network Feeding America, said ending the extra benefits ignores the reality that even as the pandemic wanes there hasn’t been a decline in demand at food banks.

Wages have been increasing in the United States and the national unemployment rate in March dropped to 3.6%, but those gains have been offset by an 8.5% increase in inflation compared to a year ago. Food is among items rising the fastest, leaving many families unable to buy enough groceries.

“The COVID pandemic is giving way to a hunger pandemic,” Hall said. “We’re in a real, real struggle.”

Feeding America, which represents 200 food banks, reports that demand for food has increased just as these organizations are seeing individual donations dwindle and food costs rise. The organization estimates the nation’s food banks will spend 40% more to buy food in the fiscal year ending June 2022 as in the previous year.

For people like Annie Ballan, 51, of Omaha, Nebraska, the decision by Ricketts to stop participating in the program reduced the SNAP payments she and her son receive from nearly $500 a month to $41. Both have health problems and can’t work.

“From the middle of the month to the end of the month, people have no food,” Ballan said, her voice rising in anger. “This is all the governor’s fault. He says he loves Nebraskans, that Nebraskans are wonderful, but he’s cut off our food.”

The demand on food banks will only grow as more states reduce their SNAP payments, which typically provide nine meals for every one meal offered by food banks, Hall said.

Valerie Andrews, 59, of St. Charles, Missouri, said the SNAP benefits that she and her husband rely on fell from $430 a month to $219 when Missouri ended the extra payments in August 2021. Andrews, who is disabled, said she tries to budget carefully and gets food regularly from a food pantry but it’s difficult.

“We’re barely making it from paycheck to paycheck,” she said. “It gets pretty rough most of the time.”

Officials at food banks and pantries said they will do their best to meet increased demand but there is no way they can fully offset the drop in SNAP benefits.

Matt Unger, director of the Des Moines Area Religious Council network of food pantries in Iowa’s capital city, noted the pantry’s cost for a 5-ounce can of chicken as jumped from 54 cents in March 2019 to a current price of $1.05.

“Costs are just going through the roof,” he said.
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
lol @ how hard this guy tries to find something wrong with the completely factual statement Biden made about Putin's invasion impacts on inflation, by pretending like the cherry picked edit quote twitter trolls posted has merit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/15/bidens-claim-70-inflation-jump-was-due-putins-price-hike/View attachment 5118942
“What people don’t know is that 70 percent of the increase in inflation was the consequence of Putin’s price hike because of the impact on oil prices. Seventy percent.”

— President Biden, remarks at the North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University in Greensboro, N.C., April 14
@nuskool89 you really should stop with the propaganda and start to understand you are pushing it when you lie in your posts like you did in this one:
https://www.rollitup.org/t/is-biden-really-that-bad.1063879/post-16902817

Unless that is your point?
 

hanimmal

Well-Known Member
Pretty solid list. It is a nice reminder of how deep the Democrats are with possible presidential candidates (that are not just twitter troll politicians). I am not sold on AOC at 10, but do understand she would bring interest to a primary debate, I think she could easily be swapped out for someone like Katey Porter or several of the house members that got voted into office in 2018.
 
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