Will You Take The Vaccine?

They are speaking of the UK or alpha variant, as it is now known, delta is far more contagious.
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Why Infectious Coronavirus Variant Worse Than Deadly Variant: Expert (businessinsider.com)
Jan 6, 2021, 9:41 AM
A top scientist explains why a more infectious coronavirus variant is a bigger problem than a deadlier strain

• The novel coronavirus responsible for the pandemic has mutated. One variant, called B.1.1.7, is more infectious and has forced the UK into lockdown.
• The variant has also been discovered in multiple US states and in other countries.
• The variant does not appear to be more deadly, and experts believe existing vaccines should work against it.
• But Adam Kucharski, an assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said that, in general, a variant that's 50% more transmissible is a bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.
• "A really severe disease that one person gets won't necessarily have as much impact as a 'sometimes-severe' disease that a huge number of people get," he told Business Insider.

A more infectious coronavirus variant — like the one quickly spreading through the UK — could deal more damage than a variant that is more deadly, a leading public-health expert has warned.

SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that has spread across the globe like wildfire and killed 1.85 million people worldwide, has mutated, and experts believe that the new variant known as B.1.1.7 is much more infectious.

Scientists blame this variant for the surging numbers of people infected with the virus in the UK, which has seen hospitals filling up with COVID-19 patients, forcing the UK into lockdown. UK government advisors said on December 18 that the UK variant was estimated to have a 71% higher growth rate than other variants. The growth rate is how quickly the number of infections changes daily.

Early studies led by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggest the variant is unlikely to cause more serious illness, and experts have said vaccines should still work against it. But according to Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School for Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, the ability to spread more easily could make the variant more dangerous than a deadlier strain would be.

Kucharski, a scientific advisor to the UK government, tweeted on December 28 that a SARS-CoV-2 variant that's 50% more transmissible would, in general, be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.

In an interview with Business Insider on Monday, Kucharski explained his math and described what he thinks needs to happen next.

Dr. Catherine Schuster-Bruce: What were you trying to say with your tweet?

Adam Kucharski: I think for me the key message is getting people to understand how much more of a problem an increase in transmission is, especially when we're so close to being able to vaccinate a whole bunch of people.

Can you explain the maths?

A general principle for every disease out there is a variant that is 50% more transmissible would, in general, be a much bigger problem than a variant that's 50% more deadly.

I think the point is, a small risk of death with a very large number of people infected, means more deaths than a slightly higher risk of death amongst a much smaller outbreak. A really severe disease that one person gets won't necessarily have as much impact as a 'sometimes-severe' disease that a huge number of people get. It's a trade-off between how many people get it, and what the impact is.

Given where we are with this coronavirus and the fact we've got vaccines, the question is around what the impact is going to be in the window before vaccines become useful. In that situation, higher transmission is, in general, going to be a much bigger problem than the equivalent change in intensity — even if it's not more severe, you end up having more impact than a virus that's spreading more slowly.

The same principles would apply in the US and the UK?

Yeah, because essentially they're referring to the underlying epidemic that's happening, which in reality, we just measure a glimpse of with testing.

Would an infectious-disease expert or genomics expert agree with you?

Well, I hope so. I think it depends. I mean, there's obviously uncertainty around the exact values here, but I think we've got a clear surge in spread in the UK. So even if it turns out to be something else, you've got that increased transmission, which is an enormous problem when you've got a vaccine on the horizon.

Even if it turns out that some component of it was behavior and another component was changes in the virus, that's still an increase in transmission, which is going to be an accelerating problem to deal with.

I think increasingly there's consensus that something unusual is going on here. If it's genuinely 50% more transmissible, we've got a real problem.
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Dr. Scott Gottlieb says U.S. is ‘vastly underestimating’ level of Covid delta spread (cnbc.com)

Dr. Scott Gottlieb says U.S. is ‘vastly underestimating’ level of Covid delta spread

KEY POINTS

• “I think we’re vastly underestimating the level of delta spread right now,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday.
• The former FDA chief said vaccinated people who may become infected likely aren’t seeking out testing due to mild symptoms.
• “There’s no clear evidence that this is more pathogenic, that it’s causing more serious infections. It’s clearly more virulent, it’s clearly far more contagious,” he said.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Friday he believes the U.S. is significantly undercounting the number of Covid delta infections, making it difficult to know whether the highly transmissible strain is causing higher-than-expected hospitalization and death rates.

“We don’t know what the denominator is right now,” Gottlieb said in an interview on “Squawk Box.” “I think we’re vastly underestimating the level of delta spread right now because I think people who are vaccinated, who might develop some mild symptoms or might develop a breakthrough case, by and large are not going out and getting tested. If you’ve been vaccinated and you develop a mild cold right now, you don’t think you have Covid.”

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have been rising due to the delta variant, with the seven-day average of new daily infections standing at 26,448, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. That’s up 67% from a week ago. The weekly average of new daily deaths is up 26% from a week ago, to 273, according to CNBC’s analysis.

“There’s no clear evidence that this is more pathogenic, that it’s causing more serious infections. It’s clearly more virulent, it’s clearly far more contagious” than earlier virus strains, said Gottlieb, who serves on the board of Covid vaccine maker Pfizer.

If younger Americans are becoming sick with the delta variant at higher levels compared with previous points in the pandemic, it’s because “younger people remain unvaccinated,” Gottlieb contended. “When people who are vaccinated do get infected, and there are breakthrough infections, they don’t get as sick. They have protection against severe disease.”

Delta is now the most-common coronavirus strain in the U.S., making up more than 57% of cases in the two weeks from June 20 to July 3. That’s the latest available window on the CDC’s website.

U.S. health officials have sounded the alarm for weeks about the variant’s potential to cut into hard-earned progress in reducing infection rates, which plummeted in the spring as America’s vaccination campaign hit its stride. As of Friday, 48.3% of the country’s population was fully vaccinated and nearly 56% had received at least one dose, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Covid vaccination coverage is higher among the most-vulnerable group of Americans: the elderly. More than 79% of people age 65 and up are fully vaccinated and nearly 89% have had at least one dose, according to the CDC.

The vast majority of U.S. counties with high infection rates right now — defined as at least 100 new cases over the last seven days per 100,000 residents — have vaccinated under 40% of their residents, according to a CNBC analysis completed earlier this week.

In Los Angeles County, officials on Thursday responded to an uptick in cases by reinstating an indoor mask mandate, even for fully vaccinated people. LA County, the nation’s most populous, had lifted its previous mask requirement about a month ago, in conjunction with the state of California ending most of its remaining pandemic restrictions.

Gottlieb said he does not expect many other state or local governments to follow LA County and begin putting in place already-lifted mitigation measures “because there’s not going to be a lot of support for mandates at this point.”

“People who are worried about Covid have largely been vaccinated. I realize not everyone has been able to get vaccinated, but most people have been vaccinated who are worried about this infection,” said Gottlieb, who led the FDA from 2017 to 2019 in the Trump administration.

“People who remain unvaccinated aren’t worried about the infection and don’t want to be wearing masks either. Now, the bottom line, that means this is just going to spread through the population,” he added.

nuskool89 said:

The fact it’s more contagious has nothing to do with how virulent it is. You’re so caught up in being right you’re missing the point. If the majority of the population above 45 is vaccinated, even if people are getting infected it doesn’t translate to more deaths. You can’t fake the reality that the younger you are the less serious covid is. It’s staggering how few people have passed away who are under 45. When you get down to 25 and below it’s an even lower death rate.

Think of how many people were exposed last year prior to vaccines. In the first few waves where the most at risk people passed away quickly in many populations across the world, what was the chance of death? At its peak moving through the world population pre vaccine what was the percentage of those infected that passed away? What percentage had to be hospitalized? Remove emotion for a minute and think of the bigger picture.

Is it safe to say the number of people who caught covid is much higher than those that tested positive for covid? There may be deaths not counted as well, but it’s less likely deaths were underreported (unless you’re China) as Irregular patterns would emerge in countries (like China) but the average is 2% or less so far, and trending downward drastically. Not 2% of the population, 2% of those infected.

So now there is Delta, a strain more contagious, but who is being infected at this point matters a lot. If it’s not any more virulent, it means there will be fewer and fewer cases that require hospitalization, and even less deaths. It’s something to be hopeful and positive about not doom and gloom apocalyptic. The world is getting better everyday

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Why are you so focused on deaths?

Do you grow plants?

If your plant is getting messed up by something even if you fix it, that plant would have been better off if you just kept it healthy in the first place.

I think this translates to humans too. Getting their systems scarred up because people are getting hung up on 'deaths' or whatever other statistical troll that is essentially just cherry picking talking points to convince themselves to not get what has been proven to be a very safe and effective vaccine, doesn't make sense to me.

Should have looked ahead, seems the question was answered already, but here is a take from a person that dealt with this stuff.

nuskool89 said:

The fact it’s more contagious has nothing to do with how virulent it is. You’re so caught up in being right you’re missing the point. If the majority of the population above 45 is vaccinated, even if people are getting infected it doesn’t translate to more deaths. You can’t fake the reality that the younger you are the less serious covid is. It’s staggering how few people have passed away who are under 45. When you get down to 25 and below it’s an even lower death rate.

Think of how many people were exposed last year prior to vaccines. In the first few waves where the most at risk people passed away quickly in many populations across the world, what was the chance of death? At its peak moving through the world population pre vaccine what was the percentage of those infected that passed away? What percentage had to be hospitalized? Remove emotion for a minute and think of the bigger picture.

Is it safe to say the number of people who caught covid is much higher than those that tested positive for covid? There may be deaths not counted as well, but it’s less likely deaths were underreported (unless you’re China) as Irregular patterns would emerge in countries (like China) but the average is 2% or less so far, and trending downward drastically. Not 2% of the population, 2% of those infected.

So now there is Delta, a strain more contagious, but who is being infected at this point matters a lot. If it’s not any more virulent, it means there will be fewer and fewer cases that require hospitalization, and even less deaths. It’s something to be hopeful and positive about not doom and gloom apocalyptic. The world is getting better everyday

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You have good points. And I would agree with you except for one thing. Hospitals are filling up again in places where vaccination rates are low. That is the most important metric. Hospitals dealing with covid patients have less resources (mainly nurses) to care for them and the regular patients that need surgeries for some ailment. So the people who need a knee replaced, a heart operation that can wait, these people are left in limbo while the hospitals are dealing with covid.

The people are showing up more in hospitals as there are more younger people infected now. The higher infection rate is because it takes a much less virus count to infect a person. So rather than needing to be with an infected person for ten minutes to get enough virus cells a minute might be enough. And I might as well say right now, yes I know all about it being related to the ventilation, if the air is stagnant or not, I took care of a hospital ventilation system, with about 120 isolation rooms including ICU rooms. I worked with the infection control people regularly and have a pretty good idea of what is involved in keeping people safe from airborne and contact infections, I have been in many infectious patient rooms, thankfully never in our Ebola rooms. (edit: I should say, with a patient. Certified the room was working as designed, air locks, shower for the staff leaving the room, and not a 'take your cloths off and relax under a hot shower' experience' either.

So yes I can see the big picture. I have seen people in ICU rooms and the families say goodbye to some of them. I have seen the round the clock care that these patients need. Let us look at ICU admissions, the chart track admissions with a 7 day rolling average.



The US trajectory is not on a good path it seems. There is room in the system yet to deal with them, but again, with them taking up a fair share of hospital resources other patients will go wanting.

nuskool89 said:

The fact it’s more contagious has nothing to do with how virulent it is. You’re so caught up in being right you’re missing the point. If the majority of the population above 45 is vaccinated, even if people are getting infected it doesn’t translate to more deaths. You can’t fake the reality that the younger you are the less serious covid is. It’s staggering how few people have passed away who are under 45. When you get down to 25 and below it’s an even lower death rate.

Think of how many people were exposed last year prior to vaccines. In the first few waves where the most at risk people passed away quickly in many populations across the world, what was the chance of death? At its peak moving through the world population pre vaccine what was the percentage of those infected that passed away? What percentage had to be hospitalized? Remove emotion for a minute and think of the bigger picture.

Is it safe to say the number of people who caught covid is much higher than those that tested positive for covid? There may be deaths not counted as well, but it’s less likely deaths were underreported (unless you’re China) as Irregular patterns would emerge in countries (like China) but the average is 2% or less so far, and trending downward drastically. Not 2% of the population, 2% of those infected.

So now there is Delta, a strain more contagious, but who is being infected at this point matters a lot. If it’s not any more virulent, it means there will be fewer and fewer cases that require hospitalization, and even less deaths. It’s something to be hopeful and positive about not doom and gloom apocalyptic. The world is getting better everyday

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Every unvaccinated person who dies from covid died from a preventable disease.

You guys have turned into a death cult.

nuskool89 said:

The fact it’s more contagious has nothing to do with how virulent it is. You’re so caught up in being right you’re missing the point. If the majority of the population above 45 is vaccinated, even if people are getting infected it doesn’t translate to more deaths. You can’t fake the reality that the younger you are the less serious covid is. It’s staggering how few people have passed away who are under 45. When you get down to 25 and below it’s an even lower death rate.

Think of how many people were exposed last year prior to vaccines. In the first few waves where the most at risk people passed away quickly in many populations across the world, what was the chance of death? At its peak moving through the world population pre vaccine what was the percentage of those infected that passed away? What percentage had to be hospitalized? Remove emotion for a minute and think of the bigger picture.

Is it safe to say the number of people who caught covid is much higher than those that tested positive for covid? There may be deaths not counted as well, but it’s less likely deaths were underreported (unless you’re China) as Irregular patterns would emerge in countries (like China) but the average is 2% or less so far, and trending downward drastically. Not 2% of the population, 2% of those infected.

So now there is Delta, a strain more contagious, but who is being infected at this point matters a lot. If it’s not any more virulent, it means there will be fewer and fewer cases that require hospitalization, and even less deaths. It’s something to be hopeful and positive about not doom and gloom apocalyptic. The world is getting better everyday

Click to expand...

Your penis is small

noschool...

New Orleans 'strongly recommends' masks as COVID-19 cases rise
“I am recommending that everyone, regardless of vaccination status, should wear a mask indoors when with people who are not in their immediate household," New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) wrote in a tweet on Wednesday.

The advisory from officials "strongly recommends" face coverings, putting "the responsibility on individuals themselves" instead of instituting a mandate.

Cantrell’s decision comes as the city has reported its highest seven-day average of virus cases, 117, since February, after dropping to as low as eight last month, according to The Associated Press.

Local medical officials Jennifer Avegno and Emily Nichols told the newswire that the new rise in cases has led to a shortage of health care workers.

“Our beds are filling up, [and] our providers are working long, hard hours,” Nichols said.

Louisiana’s health department announced that 5,388 new virus cases, the third-highest it has been since the pandemic and COVID-related hospitalizations has risen up to 844 in the state, the AP noted.

hanimmal said:

Why are you so focused on deaths?

Do you grow plants?

If your plant is getting messed up by something even if you fix it, that plant would have been better off if you just kept it healthy in the first place.

I think this translates to humans too. Getting their systems scarred up because people are getting hung up on 'deaths' or whatever other statistical troll that is essentially just cherry picking talking points to convince themselves to not get what has been proven to be a very safe and effective vaccine, doesn't make sense to me.

Click to expand...

Because that’s not how our immune systems work. You don’t go through life living in a bubble. You are constantly exposed to viruses, bacteria, and fungi and your immune system is the sum of the response to that exposure.

I understand your point, I’m not advocating the dismissal of taking precautions with personal health choices. I have nothing against vaccines and look forward to the further development of even more effective implementations.

My point in any of this is not signing on to alarmism and conspiracy, from either political spectrum.

I am not a Republican, I am not a democrat. Too far either way results in foolish world views and blinds people with vitriol toward the “other side.” How easy it is to manipulate populations into a “us vs them” mentality is far more concerning to me than Covid ever will be. I cannot sign on to the wide brush painting of individuals who vote a certain way.

I bring up Delta deaths and hospitalization rates because it’s important to keep real numbers in perspective when going about our daily lives. I am not a pessimist

nuskool89 said:

Because that’s not how our immune systems work. You don’t go through life living in a bubble. You are constantly exposed to viruses, bacteria, and fungi and your immune system is the sum of the response to that exposure.

I understand your point, I’m not advocating the dismissal of taking precautions with personal health choices. I have nothing against vaccines and look forward to the further development of even more effective implementations.

My point in any of this is not signing on to alarmism and conspiracy, from either political spectrum.

I am not a Republican, I am not a democrat. Too far either way results in foolish world views and blinds people with vitriol toward the “other side.” How easy it is to manipulate populations into a “us vs them” mentality is far more concerning to me than Covid ever will be. I cannot sign on to the wide brush painting of individuals who vote a certain way.

I bring up Delta deaths and hospitalization rates because it’s important to keep real numbers in perspective when going about our daily lives. I am not a pessimist

Click to expand...

That's the thing, vaccines turn covid into the "Wu Flu", if people get sick at all, many of those who are unvaccinated including many young people will end up in the hospital and might overwhelm the healthcare systems in some areas of low vax rates. It's the highly contagious nature of this variant and the fact restrictions and masks have been dropped in many places that make the threat so acute. When hospitals are overwhelmed the quality of care goes down or is non existent and the mortality rate skyrockets.

waktoo said:

noschool...

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Numbskull....

Fogdog said:

Every unvaccinated person who dies from covid died from a preventable disease.

You guys have turned into a death cult.

Click to expand...

This is tongue in cheek but, every obese person who died from congestive heart failure died from a preventable disease.

All plus sized clothing stores, fast food/most restaurants, and pro body image acceptance groups are part of a death cult.


I can’t even begin to take you seriously if you default to “you guys are a death cult” when I’m not part of any group you want to lump me in to, as you perceive general dialogue on the subject of Covid vaccines and Covid variants as a threat

nuskool89 said:

Because that’s not how our immune systems work. You don’t go through life living in a bubble. You are constantly exposed to viruses, bacteria, and fungi and your immune system is the sum of the response to that exposure.

I understand your point, I’m not advocating the dismissal of taking precautions with personal health choices. I have nothing against vaccines and look forward to the further development of even more effective implementations.

My point in any of this is not signing on to alarmism and conspiracy, from either political spectrum.

I am not a Republican, I am not a democrat. Too far either way results in foolish world views and blinds people with vitriol toward the “other side.” How easy it is to manipulate populations into a “us vs them” mentality is far more concerning to me than Covid ever will be. I cannot sign on to the wide brush painting of individuals who vote a certain way.

I bring up Delta deaths and hospitalization rates because it’s important to keep real numbers in perspective when going about our daily lives. I am not a pessimist

Click to expand...

Viruses have an element that's different from most categories of risk, which comes in the form of how much you care about potentially harming another person and their friends/family. The problem is that most americans are insanely selfish and undeservingly entitled, so you see certain arguments coming from certain types. I'm personally fine with not wearing a mask, but I wear it because I know I'd be the biggest piece of shit on the planet if I chose my own cute little pedestal over risking someone else's well being. Take our own Rob Roy for example, his main mantra in his life has to do with trying as hard as he can to not have to care about anyone but himself. It's just pathetic, one of the lowest members of society, imo. Lower than a tweeker thief with underfed children.

DIY-HP-LED said:

That's the thing, vaccines turn covid into the "Wu Flu", if people get sick at all, many of those who are unvaccinated including many young people will end up in the hospital and might overwhelm the healthcare systems in some areas of low vax rates. It's the highly contagious nature of this variant and the fact restrictions and masks have been dropped in many places that make the threat so acute. When hospitals are overwhelmed the quality of care goes down or is non existent and the mortality rate skyrockets.

Click to expand...

That goes back to my initial post asking if there was data pointing to the delta variant being more virulent. I remember last year there was a huge concern hospitals would have to turn people away and ERs would potentially become too full, etc etc.

Even at the peak of the upswing prior to vaccines being introduced, did that scenario come to fruition on a large scale? Serious question/asking for info

Is there a likelihood of this doomsday full capacity hospitals, given the current circumstances across the globe, where such a large segment of the real “at risk” population is now vaccinated?

nuskool89 said:

That goes back to my initial post asking if there was data pointing to the delta variant being more virulent. I remember last year there was a huge concern hospitals would have to turn people away and ERs would potentially become too full, etc etc.

Even at the peak of the upswing prior to vaccines being introduced, did that scenario come to fruition on a large scale? Serious question/asking for info

Is there a likelihood of this doomsday full capacity hospitals, given the current circumstances across the globe, where such a large segment of the real “at risk” population is now vaccinated?

Click to expand...

No one knows what’s going to happen . The more fools who want to remain unvaccinated the more chance Another more deadly variant appears . What if the current vaccines don’t work against a new variant ? This is the dealings of death cult at work. If that happens we are all even more fucked all because people refused a vaccine. These people need to be rounded up and locked up now.

nuskool89 said:

My point in any of this is not signing on to alarmism and conspiracy, from either political spectrum.

I bring up Delta deaths and hospitalization rates because it’s important to keep real numbers in perspective when going about our daily lives. I am not a pessimist

Click to expand...

Here's my perspective. 625,000 American deaths and 4.16 million global deaths is alarming. It's important to keep those numbers in perspective when going about our daily lives. I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist.

1212ham said:

Here's my perspective. 625,000 American deaths and 4.16 million global deaths is alarming. It's important to keep those numbers in perspective when going about our daily lives. I'm not a pessimist, I'm a realist.

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Exactly. Don’t forget the 194,000,000 infected (or well, confirmed positive via testing* as there are probably way more than that)

So keeping those numbers you just gave in perspective, what is the likelihood of you

a) contracting the virus

b) being hospitalized by the virus

c) dying from the virus

in a world population of somewhere close to 7.6 Billion, and a US population of around 330 million.

Now factor in the reality that all of this is moving forward, not backward, considering the amount of people who have already been exposed who didn’t die, and that those newly exposed are likely vaccinated, or young and healthy.

Is being optimistic about the near future and beyond more realistic than being fearful of Covid at this point, given the data?

You haven't even included the most important factor in your list.

nuskool89 said:

That goes back to my initial post asking if there was data pointing to the delta variant being more virulent. I remember last year there was a huge concern hospitals would have to turn people away and ERs would potentially become too full, etc etc.

Even at the peak of the upswing prior to vaccines being introduced, did that scenario come to fruition on a large scale? Serious question/asking for info

Is there a likelihood of this doomsday full capacity hospitals, given the current circumstances across the globe, where such a large segment of the real “at risk” population is now vaccinated?

Click to expand...

I feel hurt you answered other's posts but not mine.

But I won't take it to heart. Here is a few documents to answer the questions you asked.



Reduced sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta to antibody neutralization
We examined its sensitivity to monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and to antibodies present in sera from COVID-19 convalescent individuals or vaccine recipients, in comparison to other viral strains. Variant Delta was resistant to neutralization by some anti-NTD and anti-RBD mAbs including Bamlanivimab, which were impaired in binding to the Spike. Sera from convalescent patients collected up to 12 months post symptoms were 4 fold less potent against variant Delta, relative to variant Alpha (B.1.1.7). Sera from individuals having received one dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines barely inhibited variant Delta. Administration of two doses generated a neutralizing response in 95% of individuals, with titers 3 to 5 fold lower against Delta than Alpha. Thus, variant Delta spread is associated with an escape to antibodies targeting non-RBD and RBD Spike epitopes.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and potential intervention approaches
The major variant of concerns (VOCs) have shared mutations in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike proteins, mostly on the S1 unit and resulted in higher transmissibility rate and affect viral virulence and clinical outcome. The spike protein mutations and other non-structural protein mutations in the VOCs may lead to escape approved vaccinations in certain extend. We will discuss these VOC mutations and discuss the need for combination therapeutic strategies targeting viral cycle and immune host responses.

The S1 mutations significantly increases the binding affinity to ACE2 while showing lower affinity to neutralizing antibodies [17,18,19,20,21], suggesting a possible explanation for their occurring higher transmissibility and virulence [22, 23].




The danger of the Delta variant
Q: You were recently quoted on PRI’s The World as saying, “The emergency of Delta is catastrophic.” Just how worried should we be?


A: Delta is highly transmissible—about 60% more so than the previously dominant Alpha, which was itself more transmissible than the original virus—and more virulent.

Delta’s higher transmissibility means it can infect people before we get to offer them protection with vaccines—and the vast majority of the world has not yet been vaccinated. It appears that, in comparison with the previously dominant virus, Delta produces higher viral loads earlier in infection, which may mean that it’s even more infectious during the period when people don’t yet realize they’re infected. It also appears that Delta is more able to cause so-called breakthrough infections in vaccinated people, although, fortunately, the resulting infections are comparatively mild.

Delta’s greater virulence means that unvaccinated people who become infected will be sicker and the burden on the health care system will be greater. Evidence suggests, for example, that an unvaccinated person with Delta infection is roughly twice as likely to require hospital treatment than a person infected with the previously dominant variant.

In the U.S., the communities most at risk are those that are undervaccinated, predominantly in the South. Unfortunately, those communities also tend to be the ones with high rates of comorbidities, such as obesity and diabetes, which are likely to render folks more vulnerable. We should also remember that people who are unvaccinated may also be struggling with vaccine access and work in jobs that place them at higher risk of infection.

Progressive Increase in Virulence of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Ontario, Canada
Background The period from February to June 2021 was one during which initial wild-type SARS-CoV-2 strains were supplanted in Ontario, Canada, first by variants of concern (VOC) with the N501Y mutation (Alpha/B1.1.17, Beta/B.1.351 and Gamma/P.1 variants), and then by the Delta/B.1.617 variant. The increased transmissibility of these VOCs has been documented but data for increased virulence is limited. We used Ontario’s COVID-19 case data to evaluate the virulence of these VOCs compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 infections, as measured by risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death.

Results Compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 strains, the adjusted elevation in risk associated with N501Y-positive variants was 59% (49-69%) for hospitalization; 105% (82-134%) for ICU admission; and 61% (40-87%) for death. Increases with Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death.

mooray said:

You haven't even included the most important factor in your list.

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Access to medical treatment/vaccines? Or maybe daily deaths?