The blink of an eye can make all the difference in politics. In October, many here were declaring the Republican party permanently dead, predicting that it would never be able to wield much power ever again. I warned that those obituaries were premature, that a year is a lifetime in politics, and sure enough, here we are, in an alternate universe where Republicans are now expected to gain house seats and have a realistic chance of retaking the senate. Obviously I preface all of this with the same warning I gave in October: everything can change in an instant. On to the data.
At the end of October, Democrats were leading the Realclearpolitics generic congressional ballot aggregation by 6.5%. That lead today stands at just 0.2%. A very recent CNN/ORC poll is bearing out many of my past predictions about what will happen in November:
1) Voter enthusiasm is very low, especially among Democrats. 36% of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in the midterm; just 22% of Democrats feel that way.
2) Obama's approval and honesty ratings are dragging down other Democrats. A majority of voters polled said they were more likely to vote for someone who opposes the president more than they support him.
3) Support for Obamacare is at record lows. Just 35% of voters said they support Obamacare; 62% said they opposed it. This bodes poorly for any of the Democrats standing by the healthcare law.
In the senate, Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans, a substantial number of them in red states. I cannot find a single Republican seat that looks like it is seriously in play (Kentucky and Georgia are the only seats potentially in play). On the Democrat side, many seats are in play: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Potentially in play: Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Republicans only need six seats to retake the senate. Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are most likely to flip, leaving 7-10 other possibilities. Ouch.
How do the Democrats turn it around next year? Is it possible for Obama to regain the trust and popularity he managed to hold for so long, or is he already a lame duck? Feel free to make predictions and we can check the results in November!
Me first: The administration made a smart political move in delaying the setting of 2015 Obamacare premiums. They were originally supposed to come out before the midterm election; with enrollment goals grossly below expectations, insurers are probably going to hike premiums substantially to make the economics work (sick people are buying insurance and will use it; the healthy people who needed to buy insurance and not use it aren't doing their part). The bullet isn't necessarily dodged, because Republicans can still hammer that premiums will skyrocket, and without hard numbers there cannot be much of a retort. Additionally, for people who do get the exchange insurance, I expect there to be substantial disappointment with the availability of doctors and hospitals, which a lot of people might not feel until they try to use the insurance. I also anticipate additional damning NSA revelations that will continue to damage Obama, dragging Democratic candidates further down while energizing Republican libertarians. Finally, while the economy is certainly getting better according to the statistics, voter sentiment about the economy has not improved, and I doubt it will improve much within the next year. Indeed, the good economic numbers undercut Democrats' arguments that the sequester and government shutdown were bad for the economy, while bolstering the Republican arguments.
I expect the Republicans to gain house seats and to retake control of the senate, as things stand. Poor candidate selection could easily thwart the Republicans, but given the number of seats in play, they could throw up some really shitty candidates and still pull off the takeover. Given Obama's personal unpopularity and the number of seats being defended in red territory, low Democrat turnout against high Republican turnout promises to be the fatal blow. I don't see a way for Democrats to get their voters to the polls next year. They're deflated and disappointed. Fool me once, fool me twice--there's not supposed to be a third time, right? 2008 is just a distant memory, and for many, a broken promise.
At the end of October, Democrats were leading the Realclearpolitics generic congressional ballot aggregation by 6.5%. That lead today stands at just 0.2%. A very recent CNN/ORC poll is bearing out many of my past predictions about what will happen in November:
1) Voter enthusiasm is very low, especially among Democrats. 36% of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in the midterm; just 22% of Democrats feel that way.
2) Obama's approval and honesty ratings are dragging down other Democrats. A majority of voters polled said they were more likely to vote for someone who opposes the president more than they support him.
3) Support for Obamacare is at record lows. Just 35% of voters said they support Obamacare; 62% said they opposed it. This bodes poorly for any of the Democrats standing by the healthcare law.
In the senate, Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans, a substantial number of them in red states. I cannot find a single Republican seat that looks like it is seriously in play (Kentucky and Georgia are the only seats potentially in play). On the Democrat side, many seats are in play: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Potentially in play: Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Republicans only need six seats to retake the senate. Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are most likely to flip, leaving 7-10 other possibilities. Ouch.
How do the Democrats turn it around next year? Is it possible for Obama to regain the trust and popularity he managed to hold for so long, or is he already a lame duck? Feel free to make predictions and we can check the results in November!
Me first: The administration made a smart political move in delaying the setting of 2015 Obamacare premiums. They were originally supposed to come out before the midterm election; with enrollment goals grossly below expectations, insurers are probably going to hike premiums substantially to make the economics work (sick people are buying insurance and will use it; the healthy people who needed to buy insurance and not use it aren't doing their part). The bullet isn't necessarily dodged, because Republicans can still hammer that premiums will skyrocket, and without hard numbers there cannot be much of a retort. Additionally, for people who do get the exchange insurance, I expect there to be substantial disappointment with the availability of doctors and hospitals, which a lot of people might not feel until they try to use the insurance. I also anticipate additional damning NSA revelations that will continue to damage Obama, dragging Democratic candidates further down while energizing Republican libertarians. Finally, while the economy is certainly getting better according to the statistics, voter sentiment about the economy has not improved, and I doubt it will improve much within the next year. Indeed, the good economic numbers undercut Democrats' arguments that the sequester and government shutdown were bad for the economy, while bolstering the Republican arguments.
I expect the Republicans to gain house seats and to retake control of the senate, as things stand. Poor candidate selection could easily thwart the Republicans, but given the number of seats in play, they could throw up some really shitty candidates and still pull off the takeover. Given Obama's personal unpopularity and the number of seats being defended in red territory, low Democrat turnout against high Republican turnout promises to be the fatal blow. I don't see a way for Democrats to get their voters to the polls next year. They're deflated and disappointed. Fool me once, fool me twice--there's not supposed to be a third time, right? 2008 is just a distant memory, and for many, a broken promise.
