Novel coronavirus introduced to humans in exotic animal meat market.

Grandpapy said:

I have a newborn in Seattle that I cant visit (ton of pictures) because of my possible exposure to the virus if I don't already have it.
I've had 4 surgerys and numerous office visits in the past 5 weeks. It like walking on eggshells. Hopeful in a month or two i can get up there.

I hope you can get the attention your child needs.
How are things going down there? Is the count still low?

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Complete lockdown. Goons who enforce it have no fucking clue what a virus is. Yeah it's low. It's an obedient society. Best to you too, hope you can check out your offspring.

abandonconflict said:

I would have thought that doctor housecalls are essential now more than ever.

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Travel time to locations and limited onsite resources (his bag) along with extreme need are causing this IMHO. Everybody is gonna suffer, even the innocent and no doubt stupid has much to do with it. Anti Vaccers are a favorite pet peeve of mine and I've had a few walk away from "conversations" with me! There is a phenomena with us humans that is stronger in some than others, that is the tendency to believe the first thing we hear about something and discount subsequent information. Someone watches a anti vaccine video on YouTube and no matter how much you prove it in debate it leaves no impression. It's like talking to a Trumper and not all of them are Trumpers either!

I saw from your posts that you recently started a family and are well on your way to being a typical filipino with ten kids! I've known a few and almost every one of them has a huge family, knew their kids to (they came to work as apprentices and I trained a few before I retired). Their old man was a skinny little rice eating fuck (we were friends) and their kids who grew up in Canada were 6 footers! I used to tell them about the average size of knight's armor and why it was small.

A catholic upbringing usually leads to large families, don't they have a cardinal there named ,"sin"! She will be dragging your ass to mass next...

Grandpapy said:

I have a newborn in Seattle that I cant visit (ton of pictures) because of my possible exposure to the virus if I don't already have it.
I've had 4 surgerys and numerous office visits in the past 5 weeks. It like walking on eggshells. Hopeful in a month or two i can get up there.

I hope you can get the attention your child needs.
How are things going down there? Is the count still low?

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oops thought you were in the philippines with a family

I'm all fucked up here smoking a joint and doing 3 things at once, gotta chill!

abandonconflict said:

Doctor housecalls for routine stuff not related to covid. That's going to be a big part of making any lockdown feasible.

I need a pediatrician to come to my house and give my 6 week old son a DTP shot so he doesn't get whooping cough and take up one of those precious ventilators.

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Hopefully personal isolation works for whooping cough as well as coronavirus Abandon. You have a version of Trump running the place, how's Dirtbag doing in all this? Donald's answer would be MAGA hatted goons. A little biological humor to lighten your day

Fun with math and graphs to detect a change in infection growth, nerd stuff.
How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

Really nerdy stuff

abandonconflict said:

Ignored warning:

October, 2007

https://cmr.asm.org/content/cmr/20/4/660.full.pdf

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Well known to experts who tried their best, next time it will be completely different. There is gonna be a tremendous amount of work done and money spent in this field over the next 5 years and it will probably lead to cure for the common goddamn cold too. The money spent on defense will be compared to the pittance spent on this and weighed against the trillions in costs, the math is real simple.

Ignored warning:

October, 2007

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is a novel virus that caused the first major pandemic of the new millennium (89, 180, 259). The rapid economic growth in southern China has led to an increasing demand for animal proteins including those from exotic game food animals such as civets. Large numbers and varieties of these wild game mammals in overcrowded cages and the lack of biosecurity measures in wet markets allowed the jumping of this novel virus from animals to human (353, 376). Its capacity for human-to-human transmission, the lack of awareness in hospital infection control, and international air travel facilitated the rapid global dissemination of this agent. Over 8,000 people were affected, with a crude fatality rate of 10%. The acute and dramatic impact on health care systems, economies, and societies of affected countries within just a few months of early 2003 was unparalleled since the last plague. The small reemergence of SARS in late 2003 after the resumption of the wildlife market in southern China and the recent discovery of a very similar virus in horseshoe bats, bat SARS-CoV, suggested that SARS can return if conditions are fit for the introduction, mutation, amplification, and transmission of this dangerous virus (45, 190, 215, 347). Here, we review the biology of the virus in relation to the epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, laboratory diagnosis, animal models or hosts, and options for treatment, immunization, and infection control.

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^^^^ exactly what then happened later...

Kassiopeija said:

^^^^ exactly what then happened later...

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To me, that's the most salient proof that the thread title is accurate. The little pinks will come blow up the thread again as soon as the PLA gives them guidance on how to argue.

abandonconflict said:

The little pinks will come blow up the thread again as soon as the PLA gives them guidance on how to argue.

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Paranoid much?

Study: Only 6% of SARS-CoV-2 infections detected. (Bommer and Vollmer)

The average detection rate is around six percent, making the number of cases that is reported in the news on a daily basis rather meaningless. To estimate the true number of infections on March 31st, we assume for simplicity that detection rates are constant over time. We believe that this is on average a rather conservative assumption as it is getting more difficult in a growing pandemic to detect all cases despite huge efforts to increase testing capacity. Countries that started with a very low detection rate like Turkey or even the United States might be an exception to this. We calculate the estimated number of infections on March 31st dividing the number of confirmed cases on March 31st by the detection rate. While the Johns Hopkins data report less than a million confirmed cases globally at the moment this correspondence is written, we estimate the number of infections to be a few tens of millions.

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Many Covid-19 deaths aren't being recorded in the mortality totals....this is way more wide spread and more people are dying than we will ever know.

doublejj said:

Many Covid-19 deaths aren't being recorded in the mortality totals....this is way more wide spread and more people are dying than we will ever know.

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According to the excerpt below from the NATIONAL VITAL STATISTICS SYSTEM on how to fill out a death certificate, the numbers could be lower too.
I added in bold the relevant tabulation flaw.


Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)

doublejj said:

Many Covid-19 deaths aren't being recorded in the mortality totals....this is way more wide spread and more people are dying than we will ever know.

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Well this is obviously true. However, the discrepancy has to be miniscule unless outright cover-up is the case, as in China. Misattributing a few deaths can only account for a tiny fraction of the deaths. It hardly changes the case fatility rate. Maybe dozens fo misattributed fatalities. It's a drop in the bucket.

On the other hand, only 6 percent of cases are confirmed. The infection fatality rate is far lower than it seems if you're just looking at confirmed cases.

Rob Roy said:

According to the excerpt below from the NATIONAL VITAL STATISTICS SYSTEM on how to fill out a death certificate, the numbers could be lower too.
I added in bold the relevant tabulation flaw.


Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)

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so they would have continued to live with asthma but because they had asthma and covid killed them it shouldn’t be said that covid killed them?

Trumpsucking tard

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

Scientists who analyze mortality statistics from influenza and other respiratory illnesses say it is too early to estimate how many fatalities have gone unrecorded. For a disease with common symptoms such as covid-19, they said, deaths with positive results almost certainly represent only a fraction of the total caused by the disease.

I read where the NYC fire dept used to average 45 'found dead' calls a week....they are now at 400 per week and none of them are being tested for Covid-19.....but How many of them died of Covid-19?

doublejj said:

Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

Scientists who analyze mortality statistics from influenza and other respiratory illnesses say it is too early to estimate how many fatalities have gone unrecorded. For a disease with common symptoms such as covid-19, they said, deaths with positive results almost certainly represent only a fraction of the total caused by the disease.

Death toll in America almost certainly higher than official count

The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not...

www.sfgate.com

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Even if this news article is correct, I would have a few questions to ask those journalists who wrote it. First off, which is it, are the numbers inflated by including everyone who tested positive and then died, or they low ball because not all who died were tested?

The true answer is that we really won't know what the infection fatality rate is, probably for years. This is what I have been saying for this entire time in this thread, pleas eleave the sensational BS out. It's not low-ball or inflated, it's unknown and yet subject to how we go about handling it as a society. There's a good estimate and I posted it. Key here is knowing a "case fatality rate" from an "infection fatality rate".

Scientists say it's too early to estimate "mortality statistics", and yet the journalists who wrote this make a sensational headline. They were careful not to cite a case fatality rate because that would be laughable. And yet I just cited a peer reviewed study by German scientists who place the infection fatality rate in the US as equal to that of South Korea. You just went on ahead and ignored that to post this article. I'm not just picking on you man, you've been doing it for months in my thread. What was it you said on the first page? A hundred million deaths? What did I tell you then?

Calm down bro. Stick with the science, even if it means not knowing what isn't known.

With that said, the Trump camp made another dumb ass mistake. They mocked the analysis that they say includes heart attacks. It's now known that the heart is chock full of ACE2 receptors and a whole ot of covid patients have had heart damage.

doublejj said:

I read where the NYC fire dept used to average 45 'found dead' calls a week....they are now at 400 per week and none of them are being tested for Covid-19.....but How many of them died of Covid-19?

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Cool story bro...

Dozens — if not hundreds — of coronavirus deaths in New York City will not be included in the Big Apple’s grim tally, because victims died at home without being tested, The Post has learned.
Todman, Thokmey and Louie are among the 80 death investigations involving people who showed signs of the pandemic COVID-19 between March 22 and Tuesday, according to more than 100 cases reviewed by The Post.
None of those cases, though, were included in the total count of New Yorkers claimed by coronavirus because they weren’t tested before dying.

doublejj said:

Dozens — if not hundreds — of coronavirus deaths in New York City will not be included in the Big Apple’s grim tally, because victims died at home without being tested, The Post has learned.
Todman, Thokmey and Louie are among the 80 death investigations involving people who showed signs of the pandemic COVID-19 between March 22 and Tuesday, according to more than 100 cases reviewed by The Post.
None of those cases, though, were included in the total count of New Yorkers claimed by coronavirus because they weren’t tested before dying.

Scores of ‘probable’ coronavirus deaths not counted in NYC tally

Dozens — if not hundreds — of coronavirus deaths in New York City will not be included in the Big Apple’s grim tally, because victims died at home without being tested, The Post has learned. …

nypost.com

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I can't wrap my head around what your point is in this?

It's a wide-spread epidemic. Yes, it's likely that scores of people aren't counted as having died due to the virus. Yes, mortality rates are impossible to accurately ascertain. So what? What conclusion are you trying to lead me to?