War

Rocket Soul said:

So i just knew the shortcut to this thread would just be the latest posts button.

Did anyone react to the speech? He looks like scared like a dog with his tail between his legs.

Armed resurrection, traitors will get 'appropriate action'? Thats far away from 'rain down fire on all of our enemies" spiel of last year or so.
Even General Armageddon is striking out a conciliatory vibe of brothers in arms bladibla.

He is shit scared of squaring up to Prigo and have no idea how many of his own he can trust. Wagner was camping in ukraine, somewhere around Mariupol. That means that someone let them cross the border thru to Russia. He doest know how far this will reach and he is hoping and praying it can be stopped before push comes to shove. That tells me Prigo might be able to do this. But i think Poots might do the scorched earth tactic that works so well with every invasion attempt: if he can blow up the bridges between there and Moscow then Prigo is stuck. But then how is he going send supplies to the front?

It just reminds me of watching the wall going down in Germany; not sure what will happen but damn sure something will.

Rational mind tells me it wont be bad but my clenched butthole have other ideas. Lets hope hes not right...

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Sitting here in the US, I can only watch and speculate. Not speaking Russian, just listening to the translation and watching his face while speaking, I agree that he knows he's in a crisis, both for his regime but also personally. Wouldn't say he's scared but he didn't project confidence to me. His facial expression when speaking the word betrayal showed anger, but also fear often lies behind anger.

I found it interesting, his reference to 1917 that he was placing himself on the side of the tsar. That a rebellion against him was like the rebellion against tsar Nicholas. The rebellion triggered the beginning of the end to Russian war effort in WW1 and the beginning of the Russian Revolution that I think nobody would like to see repeated. But still a former officer of the KGB in the USSR casting himself in the role of tsar causes cognitive dissonance to me. But maybe that's where he sees himself.

We will see as this all unfolds how it will play out in the more distant corners of Russia. It doesn't seem that the central government has ability to suppress internal rebellion at this time.

I'm glad for Ukraine that this is happening. It increases the chance of the war ending sooner than later.

printer said:

Actually it does when you think it is a plot to overthrow the government, Putin's government.

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however, AIUI Putin had a specified response. You mentioned it yesterday, and by accounts he is running out of ground to execute.

printer said:

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Wasn't he the one who said just a few weeks ago that Ukraine and Ukrainians were going to go extinct?

Fogdog said:

Wasn't he the one who said just a few weeks ago that Ukraine and Ukrainians were going to go extinct?

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He has some imo simplistic predictive models based on geography. He believes Ukraine’s absence of natural borders from Russia makes it a temporary nation. Poland’s millennium of existence suggests otherwise.

And he appeared on Rogan, which prejudices me.

cannabineer said:

He has some imo simplistic predictive models based on geography. He believes Ukraine’s absence of natural borders from Russia makes it a temporary nation. Poland’s millennium of existence suggests otherwise.

And he appeared on Rogan, which prejudices me.

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He's right in a way.

Everything is temporary.

Fogdog said:

He's right in a way.

Everything is temporary.

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“We will all die” and other truisms

(add) truisms don’t help much. If he had a way to time these events, it would make for a more useful and testable idea imo

Fogdog said:

Wasn't he the one who said just a few weeks ago that Ukraine and Ukrainians were going to go extinct?

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I do not recall that.

Another Youtube Russian has reports of prisoners uprising, wanting to join Wagner. They opened a prison on the way to Moscow. A number of private jets in Moscow taking off without a destination, usually a flight plan is given. Those that can are getting out of the way until the dust settles.

He passed the point of no return and must realize he can't win, but it won't help him.


9 min ago

Prigozhin says his forces "are turning our columns around," amid claims of deal brokered by Lukashenko

From CNN's Katharina Krebs and Nathan Hodge

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published a new audio recording Saturday claiming he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow.

“We turning our columns around and going back in the other direction toward our field camps, in accordance with the plan,” he said in a message on Telegram.

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The announcement comes as the Belarusian government claimed President Alexander Lukashenko had reached a deal with Wagner boss to halt the march of his forces on Moscow.

"This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin briefed his Belarusian counterpart on the situation in southern Russia with the private military company Wagner," the statement said. "The heads of state agreed on joint actions.
"As a follow-up to the agreements, the President of Belarus, having being additionally informed on the situation through his own channels, and in agreement with the President of Russia, held talks with the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin," the statement continued. "Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to stop the movement of armed persons of the Wagner company on the territory of Russia and take further steps to de-escalate tensions."

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CNN has reached to Prigozhin's office for comment.

It it were not for the aircraft taken out a devious type of person might think that this might be a good cover to get a lot of equipment and manpower across from northern Ukraine and take back a portion of Kharkiv.

Reports of police questioning the prisoners who served their time with Wagner. They are asking where their paperwork is that they can be out of prison. Of course they do not have that yet.

Just a couple of seconds.

And a few more.

printer said:

It it were not for the aircraft taken out a devious type of person might think that this might be a good cover to get a lot of equipment and manpower across from northern Ukraine and take back a portion of Kharkiv.

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If they settle shit with Wagner, they will need to keep at least10 BTGs of troops around Moscow after this, no replays!

Cutting off the Russians supplies and fuel in Crimea and southern Ukraine is helping and if they attack south of Kherson city, it will draw Russian forces to the west. An attack on Melitopol would trap the Russians in southern Ukraine and cut them off along with Crimea once the Kerch bridge is down. It might trap those Russians at the nuclear power plant and put them in a pocket that will tighten around the plant. If they sabotage it, they stay there to clean it up. With warm dry weather large parts of the river are now crossable or soon will be since the dam was blown.

9 min ago
US intel saw signs Prigozhin was planning challenge to Russian military, sources say
From CNN's Alex Marquardt, Jim Sciutto, and Natasha Bertrand

United States intelligence officials believe Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had been planning a major challenge to Russia’s military leadership for quite some time, three people familiar with the matter tell CNN — but it was unclear what the ultimate aim would be.

Intelligence officials briefed congressional leaders known as the Gang of Eight earlier this week concerning Wagner movements and equipment buildups near Russia, two of the people said.

US and western intelligence officials saw signs Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition, one western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence said.

The official said they believe Prigozhin’s claims of an ammunition shortage for operations in Ukraine was deliberate deception, to help lay the groundwork for a potential military challenge to Russian leaders.

One of the sources said that while US intelligence believed it was only a matter of time before Prigozhin made a dramatic move against Russian military leadership, there was “uncertainty” about when it could happen. The other source said “it all happened very quickly,” and it was difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops.

As CNN has previously reported, US officials were caught off guard by the speed with which the situation unfolded Friday night and escalated into Saturday, causing senior officials to cancel planned international trips and convene emergency meetings across the government.

One thing, the soldiers were suppose to sign contracts with the Russian army by July 1. After that Wagner would not be getting paid and in return the soldiers would not get paid. So there was a good incentive to start this special operation at this time. Was Prigozhin going to start it yesterday or did some event bring the timetable up? Maybe he saw the 'supposed' attack of his troops as reasoning to start early?

Russia: Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin calls halt to Moscow advance
In a surprise move, Yevgeny Prigozhin said his fighters were returning to field camps in Ukraine and did not want to "spill Russian blood".
Hours earlier, he had called for a rebellion against the Russian army.

In response, President Vladimir Putin had pledged to punish those who had "betrayed" Russia.

The Wagner Group is a private army of mercenaries that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine.
Tension had been growing between them over how the war has been fought, with Prigozhin launching vocal criticisms of Russia's military leadership in recent months.

The agreement to dramatically de-escalate the situation came after Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin, according to Russian TV channel Rossiya 24.

Earlier, the Wagner group said it had taken the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and seized military facilities in Voronezh. The troops had started to march toward Moscow after crossing the border from Ukraine.
Russian authorities had introduced tighter security in many regions, including Moscow, where the mayor of the capital city had told residents to avoid travelling.


Lukashenko negotiates with Prigozhin

Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko has held negotiations with the head of the private military company (PMC) Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Belarus president's press service told BelTA.

This morning President of Russia Vladimir Putin informed his Belarusian counterpart about the situation in Russia's south that had been caused by the private military company Wagner. The heads of state agreed on joint actions.

Acting upon the agreement, the Belarus president additionally clarified the situation using his own channels and held negotiations with the Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin with approval of the Russian president.

The negotiations lasted for the entire day. As a result, the sides agreed that it is unacceptable to start a bloodbath in Russia's territory. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted Aleksandr Lukashenko's proposal on stopping the advance of Wagner's armed units in Russia's territory and on further steps meant to deescalate tensions.

At present an absolutely advantageous and acceptable variant to defuse the situation is available, including safety guarantees for fighters of the private military company Wagner.

BelTA reported earlier that earlier today the Belarus president held two conferences with officers of defense, security, and law enforcement agencies in response to the situation in Russia.

This raises the (less-than-even) possibility that the whole thing was staged.

If so, what is opaque to me is for whose consumption, and to what intended effect?