Pandemic 2020

[Five of diamonds]

His response was well written and thats why I didn't come back with numbers response, because he basically said most of what I was going to. I do agree with you on this and it's my thoughts exactly that America is likely too far into this to stop it. The thing is, we need it to slow down, NOW, because many of our hospital systems in major areas are overwhelmed. Therefore, many people will start dying that shouldn't have and don't even have covid. Wrecks, heart attacks, all kinds of emergencies that will be delayed or go unattended. If we don't do something now, things will actually be out of control, and many are going to die unnecessarily. It is possible to close up shop in the areas where cases are skyrocketing and keep shop open in places that aren't. Social distance, wear masks. There has to be some kind of balance because at the current rate we are hospitalizing people, we will not keep up with healthcare.

Agreed. I THINK that a good use of federal money would be on emergency tent hospitals and mass production of ventilators. That would be money bette spent than on anything. But again thats a opinion amd I am no emergency response planner lol. I really didnt mean any disrespect, except to the first two assholes who responded to me.

 

[Queen2Green]

indeed, and that's only calculated if every person only becomes 1 time elligible to have that virus, and from then on, be immune.... but what if the virus mutates, comes back in another form, and you can get sick for a second/third.... time (like the flue) because this is what Corona/RNA-viruses are actually famous for... that could shatter the whole concept of herd immunity

The folks waiting for herd immunity puzzle me. Let's do some math on that. 2020 population est 321 mil. 40% asymptomatic which means according to several studies they are unlikely to have antibodies. Scientific studies have shown you basically have to be sick enough to be in ICU to retain antibodies, and even then many are only retaining for a matter of months. 70-90% of the population has to get sick enough to be in the ICU to "possibly" obtain herd immunity. The current death rate is 3.43% Based on the idea that might work, and numbers, people are waiting on millions of people to die. Seriously. Also, what you said coronavirus is famous for, has already happened. It's mutated several times.

 

[Fogdog]

His response was well written and thats why I didn't come back with numbers response, because he basically said most of what I was going to. I do agree with you on this and it's my thoughts exactly that America is likely too far into this to stop it. The thing is, we need it to slow down, NOW, because many of our hospital systems in major areas are overwhelmed. Therefore, many people will start dying that shouldn't have and don't even have covid. Wrecks, heart attacks, all kinds of emergencies that will be delayed or go unattended. If we don't do something now, things will actually be out of control, and many are going to die unnecessarily. It is possible to close up shop in the areas where cases are skyrocketing and keep shop open in places that aren't. Social distance, wear masks. There has to be some kind of balance because at the current rate we are hospitalizing people, we will not keep up with healthcare.

Then a hurricane hits Houston and the city floods.

We are fucked. Or Texas is. l can't help them but still, I worry for the people who live there.

Vote Republicans out.

 

[Five of diamonds]

The folks waiting for herd immunity puzzle me. Let's do some math on that. 2020 population est 321 mil. 40% asymptomatic which means according to several studies they are unlikely to have antibodies. Scientific studies have shown you basically have to be sick enough to be in ICU to retain antibodies, and even then many are only retaining for a matter of months. 70-90% of the population has to get sick enough to be in the ICU to "possibly" obtain herd immunity. The current death rate is 3.43% Based on the idea that might work, and numbers, people are waiting on millions of people to die. Seriously. Also, what you said coronavirus is famous for, has already happened. It's mutated several times.

Agreed this doesn't seem like a good timeline. But what's the timeline on flattning the curve? Isn't it longer? Again, just asking your thoughts. Will this ever end?

 

[Kassiopeija]

It's mutated several times.

sure, like all living things you can expect some minor mutations, but these actually have to lead to a virus whose kapsid (and the epitops found spiking from it) is changed inb such a manner that the antibodies derived from the information stored in our T-helpercells ("memorycells") aren't helpfull anymore so the adaptive immunsesystem has to start anew...

so there's a huge difference in how a virus can mutate, but tthe more it does that the more it will increase the likelihood that the above may happen

 

[Queen2Green]

Where are you getting the x9 number? I agree its probably many more infected then they have tested. But your saying many more have died due to direct cause of the virus than is being reported? Where are you getting that info and how do you know its 100% accurate? I am basing my math on the positive tests done and the numbers of deaths reported due to covid. Not collateral damage, wait times etc etc. That number is not known therefore I didnt use it. How is one supposed to figure out the statistics without using the numbers given?

The countries that have done better, are not in the clear. Do you think it won't come back? Do you think it didnt cost them to do what they did? If one thing can be said about America's strategy of ignorance and saying fuck it, its that IF herd imunity is a thing with this virus, it will be over for them long before it will be over most other countries. They will get it again and again no? Have to shut down again and again no? When it rears its head next time? Or do you expect compete eradication of the virus? If so i wish i had that faith.

Based on studies done by experts. I've been watching the actual research since January. I corrected my assumption on your numbers before when I seen you were using the actual data numbers. I think your chances of survival are based on a lot more factors than just being healthy, so that is a chance that is pretty hard to compute right now.

Yes, I am saying more people have died from covid then reported. I'm not going to search for sources right now because I seriously need to go to bed. I can't remember off the top of my head, but you can look it up. The premise is based on the rate of death being considerably higher than prior years. There is an obvious reason for that.

You don't figure it out based on numbers. You act like a research scientist and look at all the evidence. Plus the numbers.

Of course I think it will come back. We need a vaccine. Until then, likely all we can do is control it by being safe, wearing masks, and staying 6 feet away from each other. Our world as we've known it has been irrevocably changed. All we can do at this point is take care of each other, do everything we can to fight it, and then rebuild. Again, I'm not saying to halt the economy. There is some things that just are not necessary. It's necessary right now, for them to be closed. There is actually plenty of jobs if people choose to work. Our government can afford to see us through this, until we recover our health. We spend billions on our millitary, please don't tell me we can't afford coronavirus.

Herd immunity will not happen without an exteme and unacceptable loss of life. Anyone who thinks that lacks empathy, and is either selfish or uneducated. Millions upons millions of people will die before that will ever happen. I honestly don't believe its possible at all, due to the lack of antibodies being found in studies and the mutations.

My ideology is my own and I am fine with that. In my mind who doesn't want to know THEIR chances of survival? Assuming you are healthy that is. I don't view that as being morally bankrupt. I didnt say let them all die either. Just some % numbers based on the info that was available and some thoughts. Also, it is true I am not in American, but how is it wrong for me to discuss these things? Especially if you correct me and I learn about the situation more?

I'm high risk and I would love to know my chance. Can you compute that? I don't leave the house but all my groceries and services are delivered so there's that. Humans in my area are not wearing masks even though they are mandated, and our hospital systems are completely overwhelmed and shutting down in all major cities. I'm sick as fuck of living like this, but all I ever hear about is the healthy people and how this is all ok, but I can see from the data and everything around me that everything is NOT ok. It's frustrating. How do you think the old and high risk people are getting it? We are hiding in our homes. The healthy people are bringing it to us!!! How long are we expected to "just stay home??" There's danger in that as well.. I do view that as morally bankrupt and that is why I was so quick to snap, sorry. Honestly it's not due to my own situation, thats just the kind of empathetic person I've always been. Everyone is of equal risk and I just don't understand why anyone would be calculating heathy people. Healthy people have grandmas, and high risk family members too. Data has showed that the majority of people infecting people are family members, not the general public. The problem is, we have to shut down, because we need it to slow down.

It's not wrong to discuss, and you're right. I try to convince people all the time to be nice and talk civil because that is truly the only way you will change someones mind, if it's able to be changed. Sorry.

Agreed this doesn't seem like a good timeline. But what's the timeline on flattning the curve? Isn't it longer? Again, just asking your thoughts. Will this ever end?

It's not. I don't know about flattening the curve but we may have to close in waves or areas on and off. I don't know. I have lots of thoughts but I'm tired and I'm down to very little time to sleep before work. I'll be back later today.

 

[Queen2Green]

sure, like all living things you can expect some minor mutations, but these actually have to lead to a virus whose kapsid (and the epitops found spiking from it) is changed inb such a manner that the antibodies derived from the information stored in our T-helpercells ("memorycells") aren't helpfull anymore so the adaptive immunsesystem has to start anew...

so there's a huge difference in how a virus can mutate, but tthe more it does that the more it will increase the likelihood that the above may happen

I understand that. These antibodies you speak of are not happening in very many people, and the ones who do get them are losing them within months. Then it has already been proven to have mutated many times, and becoming more and more contagious although symptoms do not appear to be worse.

More contagious is not good. It's pretty wild contagious already. Research the mutations, it is very likely to happen.

 

[Kassiopeija]

These antibodies you speak of are not happening in very many people

if these people you speak of don't get antibodies against SARS-2 - how is their body then actually able to clear the sickness?

 

[hillbill]

Thank God The Diamond Freak's ideology is his own (Old Eppinger shit).
Obviously don’t believe in paragraphs.

 

[UncleBuck]

Everything I said about statistical numbers was fact. Simple math. Your saying the predictions say its gonna get worse? Maybe so but thats not proof, or fact. Thats an opinion and its not shared by all who have high credentials, almost nothing in science is universally agreed upon. I base my opinions on facts and if that makes me a moron, then so be it.

moron

 

[Queen2Green]

if these people you speak of don't get antibodies against SARS-2 - how is their body then actually able to clear the sickness?

My apologies, I was beyond exhausted. What I was trying to say is that many people are not retaining the antibodies after being sick. Many asymptomatic carriers for example, are testing negative for antibodies shortly after getting better. Those who do get sick enough to retain, are also losing them within months from what I understand. It's been about a week since I last researched that though, so maybe there's new info I'm not aware of. They are constantly doing studies on antibodies to understand.

 

[Queen2Green]

I used the numbers provided by science to make a point.

You used statistical numbers recorded to make a general point, contradicting Science. Science says the numbers are much higher as well as the cost to life.

There are many things to consider when factoring the true scale of the pandemic's death tole. Only factoring counted statistics at this stage in the game is simply naive. Science has shown that.

 

[Budzbuddha]

Trump’s sharpie will make things all better.

 

[DIY-HP-LED]

I think I'll repost this, just to maintain a little perspective on the theory of "herd immunity" and only .5 or 1% die, or if the healthcare system breaks down 10% or MORE die. I think this point needs to be reinforced, since there is suffering involved here on a massive scale and I kinda got an issue with that. Lest people lose sight of the magnitude of the calamity in the "debate".

 

[Kassiopeija]

My apologies, I was beyond exhausted. What I was trying to say is that many people are not retaining the antibodies after being sick. Many asymptomatic carriers for example, are testing negative for antibodies shortly after getting better. Those who do get sick enough to retain, are also losing them within months from what I understand. It's been about a week since I last researched that though, so maybe there's new info I'm not aware of. They are constantly doing studies on antibodies to understand.

it's completely normal for antibodies to be cleared out of your plasma... but the memory cells keep that antibody-buildplan, and once you get re-infected, this info can be used very swiftly by the plasmacells to release perfect antibodies, so the virus cannot break out anymore...

 

[Queen2Green]

Trump’s sharpie will make things all better.

Can't even rely on the collected numbers anymore, now that it's in his hands instead of the CDC. I go by science anyways but we need a base number to calculate. His disregard to human life in general (coronavirus and protestors) seriously makes me sick. It still blows my mind 4 years later that America elected someone so arrognant, negligent and just overall grossly incompetent. I truly feel he is a terrorist. He is declaring war on this country in general. "Liberate the states" has our cases skyrocketing. He has sent our troops to tear gas citizens. I could go on and on. He deserves to rot, and he will for what he has done. Karma will make sure of that.

 

[Five of diamonds]

Based on studies done by experts. I've been watching the actual research since January. I corrected my assumption on your numbers before when I seen you were using the actual data numbers. I think your chances of survival are based on a lot more factors than just being healthy, so that is a chance that is pretty hard to compute right now.

Yes, I am saying more people have died from covid then reported. I'm not going to search for sources right now because I seriously need to go to bed. I can't remember off the top of my head, but you can look it up. The premise is based on the rate of death being considerably higher than prior years. There is an obvious reason for that.

You don't figure it out based on numbers. You act like a research scientist and look at all the evidence. Plus the numbers.

Of course I think it will come back. We need a vaccine. Until then, likely all we can do is control it by being safe, wearing masks, and staying 6 feet away from each other. Our world as we've known it has been irrevocably changed. All we can do at this point is take care of each other, do everything we can to fight it, and then rebuild. Again, I'm not saying to halt the economy. There is some things that just are not necessary. It's necessary right now, for them to be closed. There is actually plenty of jobs if people choose to work. Our government can afford to see us through this, until we recover our health. We spend billions on our millitary, please don't tell me we can't afford coronavirus.

Herd immunity will not happen without an exteme and unacceptable loss of life. Anyone who thinks that lacks empathy, and is either selfish or uneducated. Millions upons millions of people will die before that will ever happen. I honestly don't believe its possible at all, due to the lack of antibodies being found in studies and the mutations.



I'm high risk and I would love to know my chance. Can you compute that? I don't leave the house but all my groceries and services are delivered so there's that. Humans in my area are not wearing masks even though they are mandated, and our hospital systems are completely overwhelmed and shutting down in all major cities. I'm sick as fuck of living like this, but all I ever hear about is the healthy people and how this is all ok, but I can see from the data and everything around me that everything is NOT ok. It's frustrating. How do you think the old and high risk people are getting it? We are hiding in our homes. The healthy people are bringing it to us!!! How long are we expected to "just stay home??" There's danger in that as well.. I do view that as morally bankrupt and that is why I was so quick to snap, sorry. Honestly it's not due to my own situation, thats just the kind of empathetic person I've always been. Everyone is of equal risk and I just don't understand why anyone would be calculating heathy people. Healthy people have grandmas, and high risk family members too. Data has showed that the majority of people infecting people are family members, not the general public. The problem is, we have to shut down, because we need it to slow down.

It's not wrong to discuss, and you're right. I try to convince people all the time to be nice and talk civil because that is truly the only way you will change someones mind, if it's able to be changed. Sorry.




It's not. I don't know about flattening the curve but we may have to close in waves or areas on and off. I don't know. I have lots of thoughts but I'm tired and I'm down to very little time to sleep before work. I'll be back later today.

I agree on many points. I have a lot of doubts on things based on what I see people doing. Most people around me really are taking no precautions. Lots act like its all a joke. And seeing as I am actually trying not to bring it into the cancer patients I care for, I have come to realize how difficult it is to actually try and keep everything sanitized. Its damn near impossible. Everything touched has to be cleaned. After anyone or anything that isn't 100% for sure clean has touched it. I am successful in doing this but I think it's clear most people will NOT go through that much effort. I know they don't based on what I see. Usually the effort I see people trying to make is half assed, not nearly enough to make sure surfaces are clean or all possible contaminated objects get cleaned. And this is in a country that has done marginally well. We are spiking again now though, what a shock. Almost no mask wearing.

My point is it's impossible to get everyone to do it right. Its also borderline impossible to make everyone do something. America is such a torn country, the chances of them coming together to win, which is what would be needed, a healing if you will and working together, won't happen imo.

I still stand by my use of the numbers provided but concede to the idea that it's much worse and won't be getting better.

 

[Five of diamonds]

W

I agree on many points. I have a lot of doubts on things based on what I see people doing. Most people around me really are taking no precautions. Lots act like its all a joke. And seeing as I am actually trying not to bring it into the cancer patients I care for, I have come to realize how difficult it is to actually try and keep everything sanitized. Its damn near impoasible. Everything touched has to be cleaned. After anyone or anything that isn't 100% for sure clean has touched it. I am successful in doing this but I think it's clear most people will NOT go through that much effort. I know they don't based on what I see. Usually the effort I see people trying to make is half assed, not nearly enough to make sure surfaces are clean or all possible contaminated objects get cleaned. And this is in a country that has done marginally well. We are spiking again now though, what a shock. Almost no mask wearing.

My point is it's impossible to get everyone to do it right. Its also borderline impossible to make everyone do something. America is such a torn country, the chances of them coming together to win, which is what would be needed, a healing if you will and working together, won't happen imo.

I still stand by my use of the numbers provided but concede to the idea that it's much worse and won't be getting better.

When I said its impossible to get everyone to do it right, I am referring to the states and how far gone its become. It seems too far into now. It would have to be universally agreed upon and the vast majority would have to take full precautions. It can be done in other countries that are not so divided and not so deep into the shit pool.

 

[hillbill]

150 qualified people like epidemiologists and doctors say a shut down is the only solution, for 8 weeks because asshole and asshole governors fucked everything up so bad and are now killing 1000 Americans a day.

 

[hanimmal]

I agree on many points. I have a lot of doubts on things based on what I see people doing. Most people around me really are taking no precautions. Lots act like its all a joke. And seeing as I am actually trying not to bring it into the cancer patients I care for, I have come to realize how difficult it is to actually try and keep everything sanitized. Its damn near impossible. Everything touched has to be cleaned. After anyone or anything that isn't 100% for sure clean has touched it. I am successful in doing this but I think it's clear most people will NOT go through that much effort. I know they don't based on what I see. Usually the effort I see people trying to make is half assed, not nearly enough to make sure surfaces are clean or all possible contaminated objects get cleaned. And this is in a country that has done marginally well. We are spiking again now though, what a shock. Almost no mask wearing.

My point is it's impossible to get everyone to do it right. Its also borderline impossible to make everyone do something. America is such a torn country, the chances of them coming together to win, which is what would be needed, a healing if you will and working together, won't happen imo.

I still stand by my use of the numbers provided but concede to the idea that it's much worse and won't be getting better.

I agree with the way we have been doing things as a society, trying to stay 100% sterile is not really an option.

That is why I try to remember this is the 2020 version of whatever year it was that humanity finally understood that throwing their bodily excrement out their windows in the cities was not going to work anymore.

You would think that the regular flu might have been what stopped us from going to work sick and causing about 60k people every year die of it. It wasn't.

And if it not this one, the next super bug might be what we finally wake up to how we live together. As bacteria become more and more virulent and become anti-biotic resilient making our current antibiotics almost useless (which is over-prescribed in the states by about 50% last time I checked as it has no use for virus infections).

We need to rethink how we live in our large groups and that might just mean shopping has to change considerably. No more touching/breathing all over everything in stores transmitting our germs to each other.