War

Bagginski

Well-Known Member
Lukashenko bugging out when he did: did he get early word that Wagner was coming - *while* the show was still going on?

summary comment: I’m w/ Team Cosplay. My guess is, getting Prigozhin out of AFU’s way & staging him so close to Kyiv, & ‘regularizing’ Wagner forces now separated from Fearless Leader, are the points of the exercise. Maybe to distract AFU, split their forces suddenly?
 
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printer

Well-Known Member
‘There’s nobody on earth who can stop them’ What Wagner Group veterans have to say about Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion

Prigozhin “started to get restless” about two weeks ago, sources close to the Kremlin and the Russian government told Meduza, right after Putin said that mercenary groups would be required to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry if they wanted to continue serving in Ukraine.
Putin himself explained that the change was necessary so that Wagner mercenaries could be “covered by social guarantees.” But Prigozhin categorically refused to sign an agreement with the agency and made unofficial attempts to bypass Putin’s order. “He understood that his influence would be greatly undermined. He made phone calls, offering alternative solutions like subordinating Wagner Group to the National Guard. Plus, he was pressing for control over the preparation of territorial defense forces in the border regions. And he was denied,” said a source close to the Kremlin.

Another reason Prigozhin resisted the idea of giving the regular military control over Wagner Group personnel was that it would jeopardize his business interests in Africa, explained a veteran of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) who is familiar with the catering tycoon’s enterprises there. “When Shoigu wanted to put [Wagner Group fighters] in uniform, he was trying to take over all the lucrative African ventures, meaning all the mines, all the stuff that would fall under the Defense Ministry. That was the final straw,” said the source.

Still, people who knew Prigozhin a year ago described him as someone fully immersed in the “heroic routine” of Russia’s war in Ukraine. “He was really active there, he saw himself as a military commander,” said one source. “He got caught up in that drive; he saw how he could increase his own influence. When you wake up and go to bed hearing whispers about how great you are, your self-control mechanisms weaken.”
According to the source, Prigozhin gradually began attributing all of the failures he encountered to the “general decay” of the Defense Ministry (which was struggling to provide Wagner Group with ammunition) and the mercenaries’ “strange position” in the war. (This source is confident that Prigozhin was referring to Vladimir Putin when talking about a “happy grandpa” who doesn’t know what’s going on, in a tirade he posted online in May, though Prigozhin himself denied this.)

According to a former FSB officer who spoke to Meduza, six months ago Prigozhin got a “promise” from the country’s top leadership that if he provided evidence that the Russian Defense Ministry was in fact intentionally and illegally obstructing Wagner Group’s work, the generals would be “brought to trial.”

Prigozhin was sure he had supplied that evidence (Meduza does not know what the evidence in question might be) and allegedly even reported Sergey Shoigu and General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov to the Investigative Committee. “He was counting on the St. Petersburg team [in the government] to fulfill their obligations,” said the source.

But no legal proceedings ensued against the generals. Meanwhile, Russia’s leaders began distancing themselves from Prigozhin, as did members of Putin’s inner circle like the Kovalchuk brothers, who previously supported the mercenary leader in his feud against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov.

One source who spoke to Meduza said that Prigozhin went from being a “useful tool” to a “potential source of problems.” “Yevgeny has gone to another reality,” he concluded.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says "we haven't seen the last act yet" in Russia's Wagner rebe…

5,145 views Jun 25, 2023
Secretary of State Antony Blinken tells "Face the Nation" that although a deal has been brokered between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, "we haven't seen the last act yet."

"Face the Nation" is America's premier Sunday morning public affairs program. The broadcast is one of the longest-running news programs in the history of television, having debuted November 7, 1954, on CBS. Every Sunday, "Face the Nation" moderator and CBS News senior foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan welcomes leaders, newsmakers, and experts to a lively round table discussion of current events and the latest news.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
He got away with incendiary words up until now and somehow did not understand that the words plus taking over the military base makes his words dangerous and unacceptable.
He's an odd bird, smart enough to run a private mercenary company, and insinuate himself into putin's confidence, while simultaneously not being intelligent enough to understand what kind of response his actions would spark?
I have no idea if his "insurrection" is legitimate or not, but it severely damaged putin's reputation in at least a couple of ways. Having lukashenko, always putin's puppet, broker a deal, is a smack in putin's face. Putin accepting such a deal makes him look weak to the russian people. I think if anything was "rigged" , it wasn't with putin's blessing.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says "we haven't seen the last act yet" in Russia's Wagner rebe…

5,145 views Jun 25, 2023
Secretary of State Antony Blinken tells "Face the Nation" that although a deal has been brokered between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, "we haven't seen the last act yet."

"Face the Nation" is America's premier Sunday morning public affairs program. The broadcast is one of the longest-running news programs in the history of television, having debuted November 7, 1954, on CBS. Every Sunday, "Face the Nation" moderator and CBS News senior foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan welcomes leaders, newsmakers, and experts to a lively round table discussion of current events and the latest news.
I see a "red wedding" in prighozin's future...he should be very careful about what invitations he accepts from now on.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I see a "red wedding" in prighozin's future...he should be very careful about what invitations he accepts from now on.
Putin has got to kill him, but not yet, he has a lot of troops and influence in Africa, Russia profits from it and it appears he has some support at home, or at least a focus of protest.


Wagner secretly in war in Africa

Wagner is estimated to have around 5,000 troops across #Africa. Its contractors control strategic sites and mineral deposits. But #Wagner’s CEO, #Prigozhin, uses the PMC as a springboard to score points with #Putin.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
That sounds like a bad, bad idea on the Russians part. If that doesn't elicit an immediate and massive response, then NATO will lose all credibility as a military power, and WW 3 could become a distinct possibility.
Cutting off the Russians in the area, while gradually tightening the ring, invade over the Dnipro now that it's drained and the ground has dried out. Meanwhile cut the Russians in half with their counter offensive. Those Russian in charge will need to understand they won't get out alive if they do something stupid and will be the ones cleaning it up until they die, if captured. They must cut off the escape routes for the Russians first, then close in and then hold back 20 or 30 miles from the nuclear plant for a negotiated surrender. Trap those there who would blow it up by using two strikes in the south, one in the south near Kherson city and one further west where they are fighting now. One heads for the throat of Crimea and the other to Melitopol and save the nuke plant for last in the east after surrounding the place ASAP.
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
Putin has got to kill him, but not yet, he has a lot of troops and influence in Africa, Russia profits from it and it appears he has some support at home, or at least a focus of protest.


Wagner secretly in war in Africa

Wagner is estimated to have around 5,000 troops across #Africa. Its contractors control strategic sites and mineral deposits. But #Wagner’s CEO, #Prigozhin, uses the PMC as a springboard to score points with #Putin.
I think the deal Prigozhin struck was to get himself and his men out of the war in Ukraine and ship them off to expand Wagner operations worldwide.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
I think the deal Prigozhin struck was to get himself and his men out of the war in Ukraine and ship them off to expand Wagner operations worldwide.
that's actually a reasonable theory...prigozhin knows they can't win in Ukraine, why stain the name of wagner with a loss, when they could be "winning" against poor, poorly equipped troops in Africa and elsewhere?
 

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
that's actually a reasonable theory...prigozhin knows they can't win in Ukraine, why stain the name of wagner with a loss, when they could be "winning" against poor, poorly equipped troops in Africa and elsewhere?
It's a guess but explains the happiness of Wagner's troops after they were told to stand down when they were so close to Moscow. Why would they stick their necks out and march on Moscow only to return to trenches around Bakhmut under worse leadership while their beloved leader heads off to exile and eventual assassination? Why would they cheer about that? Better for Putin and Prigozhyn to get them out of the war, away from Russia and into Africa where they can do more of what they are already doing.

The retired CIA guy's theory that it's a feint to get Wagner poised to invade Ukraine through Belarus fits too. The issue I have with that theory is Prigozhyn's statements and march on Moscow seemingly weakened Putin inside Russia. I can't see Putin hatching some master plan with Prigozhyn that included Putin looking weak and helpless. It's possible that this is what's going on but that would be a remarkably shrewd, and risky move by Putin. One that breaks with everything Putin has done before.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
that's actually a reasonable theory...prigozhin knows they can't win in Ukraine, why stain the name of wagner with a loss, when they could be "winning" against poor, poorly equipped troops in Africa and elsewhere?
I think the "happy times" for Wagner in Africa are over, the CIA and other western intelligence agencies will deal with them now that they are in focus as a problem that needs to be eliminated. Getting rid of the assholes would do much to solve the problems in the region and reduce the influence of warlords to the benefit of the people. Travel and supply must be getting difficult for them and will get worse, many will want to get to Africa but might not be able to and if too many of them show up there it will cause a local backlash.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
Strange, there seems to be no more news about the mutiny. Not even a day old and now old news.


Falling down on the news cycle,

Peskov revealed the fate of the rebels from the private army of Prigozhin
Part of the fighters from the private army of businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The rebels will not be persecuted. This was stated by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.

“Part of the people from Prigozhin’s private army, who initially refused to participate in the rebellion, will sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense,” Peskov told reporters. The spokesman also stressed that the rebels would not be prosecuted.
 
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DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
1) the Pripet Marshes are between Belarus and Kyiv

2) he was better in Bio-Dome
And the Ukrainians have let the beavers do what the beavers do best, make dams and create even more marshes and wetlands. Due to the work of beavers the area is even more impassable.

I can't see the Belarussians wanting large numbers of Wagner cutthroats in their country and Vlad might have to remove large numbers of troops and security police from there to use back home. The political situation in Belarus is tenuous to say the least and the place is on the edge of a coup or revolution, perhaps invasion from Ukraine by Belarussians similar to those in Russia might happen. They appear to be waiting for the chance to liberate their homeland and upheaval in Russia with their troops and security mostly gone back home could provide that.
 
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