War

mooray

Well-Known Member
you can't point to one thing...putin does what he does because of his background and training, and his experiences..., russians in general do what they do because of historical events, many of which require research if you aren't from the area. i've heard ten different "experts" espouse 20 different theories, and with limited knowledge of the people and their psychology, any of them could be correct for all i know, or all of them could be full of shit for all i know.
what counts is people dying for bad reasons...and at this point, putin is the bad reason
This is true. Also part of why I don't like examining the "who started it" chain of events especially when they go back a hundred years. At some point, it just doesn't matter.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
And I sure hope sanity prevails and people in positions have the balls to say no if he orders any apocalyptic orders:confused::?::confused:
He's not nuts, just evil and pissed, he is doing this to survive in the end, or so he thinks. Right now he is shocked, confused and pissed as the magnitude of his blunder becomes apparent to him. Don't do too much to excite him right away, play by the rules even if he doesn't. He needs time to cool down and think for a spell, his people don't get western media, but I'll bet Vlad does and so do his buddies, he speaks pretty good English and German and they are multi lingual too. This is his circle, the opinion of the people around him and important to him, those who support him. If his own people weren't telling him the truth, the western media soon will!

Vlad blundered bigly, he didn't know himself or his enemy, had no plan B and invaded at the worst possible time at the beginning of mud season and even tanks are confined to the roads that are choked with his supplies and their wreckage. It ill be weeks before the ground dries out enough for him to apply combat force and meanwhile the Ukrainians are organizing, arming millions of men with surplus soviet weapons and training them too with NATO help, Tractor trailer convoys are delivering arms and supplies deep into eastern Ukraine by the hundreds of tons daily. By the time Vlad is ready to start Armageddon he will be flat broke and Russia will be coming apart at the seams. That is why uncle Sam is jumping in with both feet, the Ukrainians can win, all their troops will be combat troops, young women and older men will do logistics supplied by NATO.

This is an investment in the future for NATO, if Vlad manages to fight in Ukraine on any scale, it will bleed his army white, destroy most of it's equipment and really fuck Russia even more. Every man there will have a tale to tell back home and Ukrainian propaganda will be broadcast on their military radio channels, they only need captured radios and cellphones hooked up to play recordings or live stream information to the Russians along with popular music. The Russian troops are news starved and will listen, the old analog radios are in most of their equipment...
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
I think the Ukrainians, if they aren't now, will be broadcasting news and propaganda into Belarus, so do their Baltic neighbors to the north. I image a lot of people in Belarus get western TV and news broadcasts, AM radio goes a long way and the transmitting power of both TV and radio can be made directional with most of the power going towards your adversary. This might be why Belarus is ripe for revolution and covert action, the Ukrainians don't need to do much, European media is doing it for them in most of Belarus, which is why Russian troops are occupying it and propping up a puppet.

One of Vlad's many dangers if he loses this war and Belarus, is not that it puts NATO or even the EU on his doorstep, it puts free western broadcasters, including TV into parts of Russia and rebellion could start there that spreads like wildfire.
 

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
you can't point to one thing...putin does what he does because of his background and training, and his experiences..., russians in general do what they do because of historical events, many of which require research if you aren't from the area. i've heard ten different "experts" espouse 20 different theories, and with limited knowledge of the people and their psychology, any of them could be correct for all i know, or all of them could be full of shit for all i know.
what counts is people dying for bad reasons...and at this point, putin is the bad reason
All the military experts are in agreement that he can't win and I figure he will be driven back in places around Kyiv and in the south and it won't end up a partisan war, except for where the Russians are and their lines had better be tighter than a frog's asshole, or arms will get into the people who live in their rear. By the time the ground dries out enough for serious action, Vlad will be broke.

I know the Ukrainians are fighting a people's war for national liberation and liberal democracy, with all it's flaws, freedoms and assholes. Liberal democracy is what we do and should be supporting. Even if they were all evil cunts, the enemy of my enemy is my friend and I will destroy them later, after they spend blood defeating my main enemy. It sucks to think that way, but sometimes it's required, not this time though.
 

Sativied

Well-Known Member
just listened to Julia Ioffe on PBS Mar.9 broadcast and what a dark picture she paints, says refugees being accepted w/open arms in countries that are pretty xenophobic and over time it might not be pretty,
Xenophobic whites moving mostly to xenophobic white countries. Will they repell each other like magnets with the same pole? Maybe not, Polish for example are not that different from Ukrainians. And in west europe, our babyboomers are dying and lazy millennials don’t feel like working in a welfare state. Just in NL 400k jobs open, 50k in healthcare, expected to tripple, for which we are desperately trying to find people. In an area in Spain in 2019 they needed 10k strawberry pluckers and managed to get only 600 while in the same area 9k is on unemployment. Lazy fuckers. Which many Ukranians are known to be not. That’s why Rotterdam is taking them in with open arms, huge shortage of workers in the port of Rotterdam.

Since Syria, there has been a lot of pressure to divide refugees and immigrants across EU members more fairly. Especially some of the countries to which Ukranians flee now have been slacking. Hungary built a 106miles ‘wall’ to keep muslim refugees out. In addition to millions of Ukranian refugees, food shortages will result in many more millions of refugees from Africa. By taking in Ukranians, the rest of the EU will go along sooner with them taking in less non-white refugees.

The not pretty dark picture is being painted in real time right now. Sure there will be incidents, some media will overblow it, but Julia is writing a fictional drama that is unlikely to become reality.
 

Roger A. Shrubber

Well-Known Member
one way or another, it will end within a year...putin will either get lucky and kill zelensky and most of his staff with artillery, or they will fight him to a stand still, probably across the dneipir...if that happens, the Ukrains will turn it into a war of attrition, and drive the russians out. they don't have the men to suppress the population, and the men they do have will get picked off one by one till they're all gone.
 

PJ Diaz

Well-Known Member
It was cooked up in the kremlin and supported by the Russian government, there were some Russian extremists there. The Russians are having a lot of trouble in the Russian speaking places too. Maybe many of the Russians in Ukraine are there for the same reason Zelenskiy left, they didn't like Putin. It is not hard to foment trouble in those places along the border and that is what has been done here and in a half dozen other places in Vlad's empire, the guy was KGB FFS.

Russian disinformation gets onto Wikipeadia too and I'll bet that is a hotly contested section and there will probably be lot's of edits. Yeah those poor rebels shot down an airliner with an advanced AA system from Russia a few years back and murdered hundreds of civilians, then bulldozed the wreckage, nothing to see here.
EVERYTHING on wikipedia is suspect...i don't even look at it unless i can find NO other source of information
No, don't think so. We know it goes back to the soviet collapse and everything that lead up to it, way more than 8 years. I'm afraid I don't know my history well enough to point to what started this whole thing.
There are over 600 references on that Wikipedia page with links to their sources. Sure, Russia supported the revolt, similar to the way US supports civil wars in other countries.

Speaking of which, while it's not exactly a civic war, what's the deal in Venezuela? I thought the us considered Juan Guaido to be the legitimate president there, except that they are now negotiating with Maduro for oil reserves. I wonder how that's gonna work out. I wonder if Maduro is going to forget how the US tried to remove him and install their own puppet:

 

mooray

Well-Known Member
There are over 600 references on that Wikipedia page with links to their sources. Sure, Russia supported the revolt, similar to the way US supports civil wars in other countries.

Speaking of which, while it's not exactly a civic war, what's the deal in Venezuela? I thought the us considered Juan Guaido to be the legitimate president there, except that they are now negotiating with Maduro for oil reserves. I wonder how that's gonna work out. I wonder if Maduro is going to forget how the US tried to remove him and install their own puppet:

That's the downside of creating dependencies, you set yourself up for a moral compromise down the road.
 

ANC

Well-Known Member
You really should check this video with auto translate on.
Vlads advisor is basically telling him it is a shitshow on every front and he just tunes him to calm down and push thepropaganda. etc.
The little fucker isn't as much mad as he is believing in a fantasy.
 

printer

Well-Known Member
You really should check this video with auto translate on.
Vlads advisor is basically telling him it is a shitshow on every front and he just tunes him to calm down and push thepropaganda. etc.
The little fucker isn't as much mad as he is believing in a fantasy.
Was wondering what your point was. Not all that great a translation though.
 
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