I think the number is at least double that. And I'm sure that there are more than a few military commanders that are greatly concerned about our precious bodily fluids being tainted. But it won't go well for them.
Pardon me for getting basic about this, but: there’s a big difference between electorate and population, and the overthrow pre-party spent years doing everything they could to inflate their apparent numbers.
In ‘16 they were at their electoral peak, but in ‘20, there was a significant drop-off in participation. From 40+% of strong support in the voting booth, their core support has dwindled by my estimates to 20-25% hard core, “MAGA” support. I expect that number to fall even farther over ’22-‘24 - I doubt it will go as low as 15, but sub-20% seems inevitable. With the treasonites in government and party/adjacent jobs at every level, the DIN will not reduce, but noise is not numbers: the more the screws turn on OO, the louder and more unhinged things will get…but the weaker their support will get simultaneously.
Not all conservatives are “conservative”: many take their sweet time changing their opinions, and many will find themselves driven away by the flagrant radical nature of the overthrow crew - and the blatant criminality being uncovered by the bucketful. In no way does this mean that the newly-disaffected will vote blue en masse…but many will stay home, as they did in ‘20 - and fewer will vote for MAGA down ballot as the stench invades all candidates.
As to the ‘civil war’ equation, I don’t see it as likely, at least not in the ways I see folks talking about. The most I can reduce the danger to numbers, it still adds up to ~1000 well-armed & wrong-headed potential lone-wolves PER STATE. That’s enough to create a shit-ton of serious problems all over the country for…a while. What the impact may be long term of all the screws coming loose on the overthrow machine is beyond my powers, but that’s a lot of freakin’ gorillas to round up.
