With all those government programs being shut down and less government spending taxes should go down. (Unless I don't understand gaggle. Is gaggle more or less than a slew?)
Recession over?
- Thread starter jrh72582
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With all those government programs being shut down and less government spending taxes should go down. (Unless I don't understand gaggle. Is gaggle more or less than a slew?)
tahoe58
Well-Known Member
I couldn't help but post about something I just heard .... in relation to the markets being some "relevant" measure of economic activity ... Twitter is now as a company worth over $1B .... no revenue, no plan on how to make money nuthin like that .... but there certainly is a huge groundswelll of interest and hype about Twitter ....
gold/silver .... usable tender .....
markets rocketing ...... the retest of the March lows is still a very likely possibility. These levels have not been retested ... and "generally" the market likes to "confirm" prices more than once ...
Totally agree with the ARM resets coming .... commercial real estate has not been adjusted for most balance sheets. CreditCard debt still remains to be reconciled?
One of the things that has me puzzled or thinking deeply I suppose is, what if?, what if there is some way that all this debt is "forgiven" or morphed into sometihng else ( I realize this might not change thing in the long run but .... what if) .... what if "generally accepted" economic principles are not held, and although all economic theory tells us what will happen with the printing machines churning out dollars ... what if things don't progress like we believe it will. the action of the market from 2007 through 2008 and into 2009 is considerede to be an event that is 21 standard deviations away from the norm. That is in mathematical terms, a virtual impossibility ... so it really should have been able to happen .... the chances/probability of such an event is beyond miniscule. Nassim Taleb's "The Fourth Quadrant" further brings question to the concept of "normal" distribution and the basis of our understanding of mathematical and/or economic models .....
gold/silver .... usable tender .....
markets rocketing ...... the retest of the March lows is still a very likely possibility. These levels have not been retested ... and "generally" the market likes to "confirm" prices more than once ...
Totally agree with the ARM resets coming .... commercial real estate has not been adjusted for most balance sheets. CreditCard debt still remains to be reconciled?
One of the things that has me puzzled or thinking deeply I suppose is, what if?, what if there is some way that all this debt is "forgiven" or morphed into sometihng else ( I realize this might not change thing in the long run but .... what if) .... what if "generally accepted" economic principles are not held, and although all economic theory tells us what will happen with the printing machines churning out dollars ... what if things don't progress like we believe it will. the action of the market from 2007 through 2008 and into 2009 is considerede to be an event that is 21 standard deviations away from the norm. That is in mathematical terms, a virtual impossibility ... so it really should have been able to happen .... the chances/probability of such an event is beyond miniscule. Nassim Taleb's "The Fourth Quadrant" further brings question to the concept of "normal" distribution and the basis of our understanding of mathematical and/or economic models .....
LOL..."taxes should go down" No thats funny...LMAO....
AHHHH No they won't,,,, maybe in the far off furture,,,But not in the next 5-7 years
Tahoe enjoyed the read. Very well put.
I'm shorting commerical real estate..In your example I would be f$cked. If they don't let them fail my short is DEAD....Oh My...
tahoe58
Well-Known Member
markets have become "almost" untradable on some days .... though the last fews day have been great.
the CRE .... yea that\s a crackjacksbox .... and maybe the prize is something you want ... and maybe its not ..... the market have pretty much proved "anything can happen" ....
Risk and Risk Profile. If it fits ... Walk on!!~~~~
the CRE .... yea that\s a crackjacksbox .... and maybe the prize is something you want ... and maybe its not ..... the market have pretty much proved "anything can happen" ....
Risk and Risk Profile. If it fits ... Walk on!!~~~~
tahoe58
Well-Known Member
that could be real good .... I asked a very good and wise (or so I think) friend of mine that has been investing for decades ... how has he protected himself against the potential vulnerability of the USD .... his answer, he has none. I had to sort of laugh cuz that certainly one way. Unless you count missing out on that potential downside .... in my view and maybe this is just obvious, but itss all about time frames .... and putting things into context from that perspective. Trade On!!~~~~
markets have become "almost" untradable on some days .... though the last fews day have been great.
the CRE .... yea that\s a crackjacksbox .... and maybe the prize is something you want ... and maybe its not ..... the market have pretty much proved "anything can happen" ....
Risk and Risk Profile. If it fits ... Walk on!!~~~~
LOL.....You funny and smart!!!
Walking On..
Go SRS......
Tahoe whats your take on SRR
Oh Shit have the Captialist taken over this tread...
Not really...From what i understand its a basket of REIT's or really all the Dows commerical R E componts and they short them all...
But have a wise friend on Wall Street, Or so I think, He was the VP on the distress debt trading floor at Lehman Brothers. Quit about 6 month before they went down. Heres his book...
www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense.../0307588335
CrackerJax
New Member
With the inane policies being set in concrete by Team Obama, the recession will be a fond memory sometime in the future.
What they aren't telling you is all of the waves of bad numbers still on the books. So besides the damage being done now with a Govt. shopping spree (when we're all broke), is that at some point medicare, and SS are going to come due to the tune of 100 TRILLION dollars. That's TRILLION folks.
So let's all spend spend spend!!!! Right??!!??
This recession will be a FOND memory sometime soon.
What they aren't telling you is all of the waves of bad numbers still on the books. So besides the damage being done now with a Govt. shopping spree (when we're all broke), is that at some point medicare, and SS are going to come due to the tune of 100 TRILLION dollars. That's TRILLION folks.
So let's all spend spend spend!!!! Right??!!??
This recession will be a FOND memory sometime soon.
CrackerJax
New Member
Sad but so true. The euro is at 1.45 US..... AHEM.... the EURO!!!
tahoe58
Well-Known Member
yea .. it really is a mystery to me what the outcome will be in the next 12-18 months or even 6 months ... CAD$ talking about par again ... lots of theory to throw around ... not sure the theory fits anymore .... new record monthly total for automobile sales (which roughly happens to be an ANNUAL figure for North America?) in China ..... will they be a sustaining factor in a glbal marketplace? I think the US and by association Canada is going to have some realy challenges ahead ... pain like we really don't want to have to experience.
CrackerJax
New Member
The average citizen is being shielded from the harsh.... very harsh realities that lie ahead.
At some point the unraveling will be too evident to deny, but at that point it will be unstoppable.
It is coming.
At some point the unraveling will be too evident to deny, but at that point it will be unstoppable.
It is coming.
tnrtinr
Well-Known Member
Educate me.
CrackerJax
New Member
Well, we can start with the big govt. programs that are coming due to the tune of ... brace yourself ... 100 trillion dollars.
Now that is going to make everything happening today look like the good times.
We have multiple bailouts waiting in the wings. We still have waves of bad mortgages, both private and public in the pipeline.
It is almost guaranteed that energy prices are going to spike across the board. Oil, electricity, natural gas, everything. The current administration is doing absolutely nothing in this regard.
The dollar volume has DOUBLED since January. The FED literally doubled the bills in circulation. In the end, they had to, but the cost will be great if the Obama way of spending is allowed to progress. Having the global currency $$ in danger means that at some point.... it will be dumped as the global currency. This has been talked about already. That's a first. That's a bit scary it's even being considered at our current and future national debt levels.
That's strictly off the top of my head.
I can put something much more cohesive together but to tell you the truth, it depresses me. The picture is that bleak. The current trend is accelerating us towards the economic cliff.
Now that is going to make everything happening today look like the good times.
We have multiple bailouts waiting in the wings. We still have waves of bad mortgages, both private and public in the pipeline.
It is almost guaranteed that energy prices are going to spike across the board. Oil, electricity, natural gas, everything. The current administration is doing absolutely nothing in this regard.
The dollar volume has DOUBLED since January. The FED literally doubled the bills in circulation. In the end, they had to, but the cost will be great if the Obama way of spending is allowed to progress. Having the global currency $$ in danger means that at some point.... it will be dumped as the global currency. This has been talked about already. That's a first. That's a bit scary it's even being considered at our current and future national debt levels.
That's strictly off the top of my head.
I can put something much more cohesive together but to tell you the truth, it depresses me. The picture is that bleak. The current trend is accelerating us towards the economic cliff.
tnrtinr
Well-Known Member
I know about all of that stuff.
I was hoping you were going to take it one step further to paint the reality that will be our lives.
The thing I don't understand about conspiracy theories is that they mention a single world currency. But with the dollar they had that already. All they had to do is peg other currencies to the dollar - once they are all pegged then they have a single world currency with the dollar or they peg the dollar to another new currency if they choose. I don't understand why they would destroy wealth (including their own) to create a new currency when they could have preserved wealth and created a currency. They also have the Forex which allows them to make money by doing nothing other than converting dollars into foreign currencies and taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities. Plus currency swaps allow the wealthy to pull their money from a down economy and take advantage of upcoming economies.
What I think is more realistic is that certain VERY wealthy people would like to buy BIG things at a severe discounts.
CrackerJax
New Member
Well, they aren't really prepared to make ONE currency. They are prepared to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Once upon a time the world currency was, the English Pound. Solid as the rock of Gibraltar.
Gone...... replaced by the dollar. It is quite conceivable that the dollar will be "pushed" aside. The only real loser is the USA ad perhaps Canada (who does 80% of all business with the USA).
Then we have the debts which will be called in (as is the debt holders right) IN THE NEW currency. Double whammy there. Not sure if it's legal, but at that point, the law will not be in our control.
At this point, the wealthy are just like everyone else. they are cutting back their spending. They are seeking tax shelters. They don't trust the near future. They are usually correct. One of the very reasons why they are wealthy (ahem).
Once upon a time the world currency was, the English Pound. Solid as the rock of Gibraltar.
Gone...... replaced by the dollar. It is quite conceivable that the dollar will be "pushed" aside. The only real loser is the USA ad perhaps Canada (who does 80% of all business with the USA).
Then we have the debts which will be called in (as is the debt holders right) IN THE NEW currency. Double whammy there. Not sure if it's legal, but at that point, the law will not be in our control.
At this point, the wealthy are just like everyone else. they are cutting back their spending. They are seeking tax shelters. They don't trust the near future. They are usually correct. One of the very reasons why they are wealthy (ahem).
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