Pandemic 2020

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schuylaar

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heard this somewhere just to show how fvcking sleazy this shit is..so Colorado Governor Jared Polis was bidding on ventilators until FEMA started bidding against Colorado, Polis dropped out and FEMA gifted Colorado ventilators courtesy of that POS hack Sen Cory Gardiner (R)..so I'm going to say there's gonna start being some bad blood in ColoraDUH..reallllll effin soon. Polis is a real leader..
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

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Fogdog said:
Yep, social distancing is working. The more people stay away from each other, the sooner we will be able to implement containment strategies such as wide spread testing, tracing and isolating new cases before they spread the disease.

Thanks for agreeing.
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This isn't even good derision. This is just distortion. Why so upset? I wish I could come up with a good insult like that other old bastard who called you fuckdog.
 
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schuylaar

Well-Known Member
hillbill said:
Can someone please put this person under a psychiatric hold as he is clearly the biggest threat to the lives and freedoms of the people.
Seriously
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Florida has Baker Act for juuuuuuuuuust such an occasion..isn't he a resident now? 72-hour mandatory hold by judge and no one can overrule-not anyone.
 
abandonconflict

abandonconflict

Well-Known Member
rkymtnman said:
i was pointing out the fallacy of abandon thinking contact tracing will work here. 'Murica=freedom
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Your point was literally the definition of bigotry. Assuming that all members of a subculture would fail to grasp modern science.

I'm not offended, I expected people to hate me for bringing bad news.
 
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schuylaar

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
"Flatten the curve" is a strategy that requires logarithmic graphing.

There were 7,468 new cases in NY in the last 24 hours. There were 6,337 in the 24 period before that. That is an increase of 16%. On march 12, when NY becgan shutting down parts of the public and businesses, there were 368 cases. The dozens of new cases in the days following then, would have looked very much the same as the thousands of cases in the last two days. That is logarithmic graphing. That is "flatten the curve". +16% is not a flat curve. If miraculously, for the next 3 days, case growth holds like this and we can see an inflection toward flattening in this curve, we will be seeing 7500 new cases per day in one city, slowly diminishing until there's a fucking vaccine.

If it takes a week for the curve to flatten, we'll be seeing 15 thousand new cases per day. If we're extremely lucky, there won't be another NY. If our miraculus luck continues, and all of these are met, we still have to keep our healthcare baseline above the apex of that curve until there's a vaccine.
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i heard through the medical grapevine we'll have our first vaccines for September.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

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abandonconflict said:
Your point was literally the definition of bigotry. Assuming that all members of a subculture would fail to grasp modern science.

I'm not offended, I expected people to hate me for bringing bad news.
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I know.

Just being given the facts is boring.

sorry for that.
 
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schuylaar

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
The Oxford vaccinologist woman is 80% sure her vaccine will work. I don't even think the flatten the curve strategy can last that long. Our frontliners don't even have proper PPE.
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September for vaccine looks a lot better than the 18-24 months others spew..I'd like to have some hope here..since it came from medical sources..I'm going to have some hope.

Please don't rain on my parade.
 
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schuylaar

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
thump is hording supplies from blue states and sending them to red states and he has blue state Governors forming pacts against him.....isn't this how the civil war got started?
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if we don't learn from history we are condemned to repeat- hillbillies don't read.
 
Unclebaldrick

Unclebaldrick

Well-Known Member
abandonconflict said:
whoa now partner

I never said anything about abandoning science. In fact many of the experts are saying the shit I'm saying, they just say it better.

www.npr.org

How Contact Tracing Works And How It Can Help Reopen The Country

It's a technique widely used in other countries to slow the spread of infection. Here's how contact tracing works — and how it can help the U.S. start to get back to normal.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
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Fair point. I concede that this is a argument with fine people on both sides - literally.
rkymtnman said:
yeah, pull up to the hillbilly in Arkansas that has the virus and tell him you need to know the last 10 places he's been and the last 20 people hes been in contact with.
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And this is what I am afraid of. Among other aspects of giving away that information.

abandonconflict said:
"Flatten the curve" is a strategy that requires logarithmic graphing.

There were 7,468 new cases in NY in the last 24 hours. There were 6,337 in the 24 period before that. That is an increase of 16%. On march 12, when NY becgan shutting down parts of the public and businesses, there were 368 cases. The dozens of new cases in the days following then, would have looked very much the same as the thousands of cases in the last two days. That is logarithmic graphing. That is "flatten the curve". +16% is not a flat curve. If miraculously, for the next 3 days, case growth holds like this and we can see an inflection toward flattening in this curve, we will be seeing 7500 new cases per day in one city, slowly diminishing until there's a fucking vaccine.

If it takes a week for the curve to flatten, we'll be seeing 15 thousand new cases per day. If we're extremely lucky, there won't be another NY. If our miraculus luck continues, and all of these are met, we still have to keep our healthcare baseline above the apex of that curve until there's a vaccine.
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Those numbers are just known cases. Behind each one is a "likely" number of infected that is much higher - especially early on.
 
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