could pot be worthless in 2 years?
- Thread starter Organicpoop
- Start date
BobCajun
Well-Known Member
In Cali I can believe that. All you gotta do is go to some federal land and plant em up. And there's people in Humboldt growing monstrous plants right on their property. The whole county is involved in it. I saw a documentary about it. The rest of nation though will probably not be able to do that. However, they can certainly drive to Cali and take advantage of the glut to get cheap prices and then go back to wherever and double or triple the price. But really, prices were way inflated before now. People were just flat out scalping the rubes, like in NY. A guy was posting recently about selling $400 ounces in fancy shmancy Connecticut and people coming back for more. You just gotta find the pockets of rich rubes.
woodsyn2o
Well-Known Member
the weed will dictate the price i have always told my phriends well get better weed then if ya cant compeet with thoes prices. but when i go around selling 200 dollar oz 30 bucks an an 8th people think i got shit weed haha some times i just show them it then watch their jaw dropp when i say 200
kratos015
Well-Known Member
There will ALWAYS be a market for pot, however that being said, the green rush is long gone. 5-10 years ago, primo indoor would fetch a minimum of 3k, up to 4k/lb in some rare cases.
However, now that things are becoming more legal the market is starting to stabilize. It isn't as risky for people to grow anymore, so more people are jumping into the market. As a result, prices are beginning to stabilize as the market is determining just how much it is willing to pay for pot. However, to say pot will be worthless is a huge overstatement.
Alcohol remains a good example for comparison in this case. You've got your huge corporations like Budweiser, Miller, Coors, etc. You've also got your micro breweries, and then you've got brewers that are a bit in between. They aren't quite micro brewers, but they aren't enormous corporations either (New Belguim, Sierra Nevada, etc). And then of course, you have your home brewers. I wasn't around when alcohol was first brought onto the market, in fact none of us were
However, if I had to take a guess, it was much like pot in the sense that things were more expensive because there was less choice/competition. However, now the alcohol market has stabilized, with the buyers having finally established a price they are willing to pay for it. You'll always have your $2-3 40 oz, your $8-10 six packs of Miller/Budweiser, and your $15-20 6 packs of craft beer. Consumers willingly pay $4-$10 per 24 oz bottle of quality craft beer. The point is, there's a market for bulk quantities of mediocre beer, there's a market for small quantities of excellent beer, and a market for those in between. The prices for all of those markets pretty much never fluctuate anymore as they've been set in stone.
The same thing is beginning to happen with weed. Gone are the days of $20 grams, $60+ eighths, and $400 ounces. The market seems to be shifting toward an acceptable price for both buyer and seller, and that seems to be $10 a gram for quality with $200 an ounce also becoming a standard price. Again, these are retail prices and not commercial. For a grower to command a $2k/lb price, the product would have to be the best of quality, otherwise $1500-1800 seems to be the average price for commercial retail sales, with $600-$1200/lb for outdoor.
When you think about it, $10/gram works great for both consumers and producers. Much like $2-3/ 40 oz works great for both parties. It's a balance between making enough money to warrant the time invested into creating the product, and charging a price that is fair to both producers and consumers. I was charging $10/gram a good 4 years or so ago, and now most people seem to be charging that price.
So in conclusion, pot itself will not be worthless, but you're going to see a lot of mediocre growers put out of business which is why you see so many butthurt growers. 5+ years ago, you could get crap yields of something good and it would still sell for $3k+ so you were fine. But now, you're lucky to get $2k/lb which means that if you aren't able to produce quality AND quantity then you simply cannot compete.
So, while there is still some money to be made in growing, it isn't a "green rush" anymore. Now you have to work harder to compete with others in the market, however if you manage to produce a quality product, and enough of it, there will ALWAYS be a place for you. Back in the day, it didn't matter if you were missing quality or quantity because you could get away with it. But these days, if you don't have quality AND quantity, you simply will not make it.
However, now that things are becoming more legal the market is starting to stabilize. It isn't as risky for people to grow anymore, so more people are jumping into the market. As a result, prices are beginning to stabilize as the market is determining just how much it is willing to pay for pot. However, to say pot will be worthless is a huge overstatement.
Alcohol remains a good example for comparison in this case. You've got your huge corporations like Budweiser, Miller, Coors, etc. You've also got your micro breweries, and then you've got brewers that are a bit in between. They aren't quite micro brewers, but they aren't enormous corporations either (New Belguim, Sierra Nevada, etc). And then of course, you have your home brewers. I wasn't around when alcohol was first brought onto the market, in fact none of us were
However, if I had to take a guess, it was much like pot in the sense that things were more expensive because there was less choice/competition. However, now the alcohol market has stabilized, with the buyers having finally established a price they are willing to pay for it. You'll always have your $2-3 40 oz, your $8-10 six packs of Miller/Budweiser, and your $15-20 6 packs of craft beer. Consumers willingly pay $4-$10 per 24 oz bottle of quality craft beer. The point is, there's a market for bulk quantities of mediocre beer, there's a market for small quantities of excellent beer, and a market for those in between. The prices for all of those markets pretty much never fluctuate anymore as they've been set in stone. The same thing is beginning to happen with weed. Gone are the days of $20 grams, $60+ eighths, and $400 ounces. The market seems to be shifting toward an acceptable price for both buyer and seller, and that seems to be $10 a gram for quality with $200 an ounce also becoming a standard price. Again, these are retail prices and not commercial. For a grower to command a $2k/lb price, the product would have to be the best of quality, otherwise $1500-1800 seems to be the average price for commercial retail sales, with $600-$1200/lb for outdoor.
When you think about it, $10/gram works great for both consumers and producers. Much like $2-3/ 40 oz works great for both parties. It's a balance between making enough money to warrant the time invested into creating the product, and charging a price that is fair to both producers and consumers. I was charging $10/gram a good 4 years or so ago, and now most people seem to be charging that price.
So in conclusion, pot itself will not be worthless, but you're going to see a lot of mediocre growers put out of business which is why you see so many butthurt growers. 5+ years ago, you could get crap yields of something good and it would still sell for $3k+ so you were fine. But now, you're lucky to get $2k/lb which means that if you aren't able to produce quality AND quantity then you simply cannot compete.
So, while there is still some money to be made in growing, it isn't a "green rush" anymore. Now you have to work harder to compete with others in the market, however if you manage to produce a quality product, and enough of it, there will ALWAYS be a place for you. Back in the day, it didn't matter if you were missing quality or quantity because you could get away with it. But these days, if you don't have quality AND quantity, you simply will not make it.
natureboygrower
Well-Known Member
i lived in coconut creek in the late 90's.krypt,krypto weed was the best thing around at the time($50 an eight)do you know if thats still around?
cindysid
Well-Known Member
I've smoked some that was called Krypt, but not sure if it's the same one.. There's some killer weed here though. I grow some of it! LOL
natureboygrower
Well-Known Member
yes,im sure its the same.$50 was a lot of money for an eight back then,but i was never disappointed.ok,your weed sounds great,next time im in the area i'll meet you at tradewinds park(great disc golf course)
PoopBear
Well-Known Member
Can I check those out? How are they?
Decent nug, seems sativa leaning hybrid, pretty solid buds though . Smells like its been bagged up since oct.
PoopBear
Well-Known Member
We'll definitely not sealed too tight, looks good. When fresh I would have taken those all day long for a 1000.
Carolina Dream'n
Well-Known Member
Here is the problem with growers doing there own math on price per pound, most growers have no financing or accounting knowledge.
Are you accounting for equipment purchased in your math? Take the price of the equipment and the estimated lifespan to get a monthly amount spent on equiepment.
Power bills? Mortgage? Trimmers? Lawyers? Equipment? Yearly Licenses?
Real businesses account for every single penny when doing a price per.
ttystikk
Well-Known Member
Not here in Colorado.
Real businesses here are still pricing it by what they can move it for. Judging by all the rental and out of state license plates in their parking lots, I'd say their model is sound for the short and medium term.
driel
Well-Known Member
there no MoM type operations in the US that deliver through the mail? It's super popular in Canada because of the supply being out west, the prices would vary all the time. Queue these MoM operations setting up shop years ago and selling for a lower price across the entire country. Now there's dozens of different ones all competing in a grey market.
backtracker
Well-Known Member
I shop in Redding CA it's in the center of Norca, I-5, 299E and 299W go through town to get from the coast to the east you go through Redding I see rigs from all over the country and this isn't a tourist attraction, mule central.
420producer
Well-Known Member
i try to give it a fair market value.. it pays rent and . nutes used along with power, or is it outdoor grown . which will give it a far lesser value. which he majority of coloradans do.. to flood market with seeded nonsense that turned female cuz the other half seeded it, and are stoked cuz they get a few bucks.and dispensaries blast them 99$ rec specials. there's a reason its cheap..
you got some kid that mixed in silica with the cal.mag in week 5.. "is that supposed to happen??" as he pours it in " or they got so much pm or webbing on it...
it.then gets pulled for trimmers who use safety scissors.{ they dont throw it away..}
gives it week of drying time puts it all together with that weeks other boo-boo..AKA" the pre weigh specials.. then out of towners/mules see that and assume all weed is that price..or heard they got some in denver for 12 or 13.. but its seeded or maybe a jack move. where they lose everybody's lunch money..cuz of greed. so the 30k for 30 bows of high quality indoor is a myth. its last years outdoor that someone is BSing you.. , weed taken /stolen, or the cops. looking for easy marks.. cuz there is no way you can profit selling your indoor under 15 if u put in all costs and ROI legally. and would want return customers . ie. growing your best.imho..
BobCajun
Well-Known Member
Also you have the Vietnamese stealing power with special boards they have made up and they all use. So they have no power costs at all. Somebody was recently complaining about them in I think Washington, might have been CO. Anyway they do sell to dispensaries for $600. He said they do big outdoor grows too. Vietnamese are a serious threat to growers who actually pay for power or stick to outdoor plant number limits. Might have been on this thread, idk. Not gonna look through it to see. If so, excuse me for the old news.
420producer
Well-Known Member
these cali boys got taken by some north korean.. 100k of funny money for a 100 pax. then tried to get work out here with it... i dont know anyone taking that currency.. . and no real reason to steal anything. so if thats how its working.?? imma stay doing the best with what i got . and hope i dont get short stopped for 600$ but that sounds like cali. im sure some folks out here do it too. but not this guy..imma pay he cost. but if they ratting on customers. power spikes then .? lol but really 600 to 1k tag? gonna have to be more than 1 at a time. and greenhouse light dep. can be done and profitable
420producer
Well-Known Member
those are on consignment? when a dispensary gets them too.dont think you can take your extras to livwell and see if they can sell it.? ..
is the med in cali even tested? or done by eye sight and strain? and hope all the banned shit in cali dont find its way into the flower. ie Avid. bush-load.. thats the shit that worries me and makes me go only to a dispensary here in Colorado and Nevada.. or a homie that i knew personally grew it. with out that shit..