That must be it, the virus has a predilection for those affiliated with one party and not the other.
Santa Cruz to Capitola to Watsonville (3 cities with unincorporated areas in between) is about 20 miles each way. I could easily drive another 25 miles down to Monterey (in a different County) no problem as well.
Well one difference is that Republicans seem to think it's a hoax so they don't shelter in place, but Democrats understand the importance of it.That must be it, the virus has a predilection for those affiliated with one party and not the other.
So how many people would you say actually are defying the order and doing so? It doesn't sound like you're under lockdown at all. Not sure how you're arguing that there's a complete lockdown of the sort I've repeatedly described and insisting that it has flattened the curve that isn't fucking flat. Cases are continuing to double every 8 days there, very slightly slower than models have suggested. You said it's because of lockdowns and you're not even under lockdown.
Also not true (here at least). On April 12th there were 91 confirmed cases in Santa Cruz County. Eight days before that on April 4th, there were 65 cases. My math says that's not anywhere near close to doubling in 8 days.
So you didn;t read the Mercury News article that you citied when you demanded I explain why your county has a lockdown that isn't really a lockdown flattening a curve that isn't really flat.
www.mercurynews.com
What am I missing here? When I read the first few lines, it seems to me to be saying that shelter in place, people staying home is flattening the curve and cutting the rate of new infections.@PJ Diaz Here, I'll link your own article back to you, ya dingus.
Coronavirus: Santa Cruz County’s case curve ‘among the very best’ in state
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” said Health Officer Gail Newel at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flatteni…
I asked you to define lockdown, and you said it was all schools and public spaces being closed. That's what we have here. Private stores are not all closed, assuming they are considered essential. Home Depot and Costco are both essential businesses, and there;s nothing to stop me from driving to the Costco or Home Depot in Monterey County to get essentials. Last week, my dog found a hold in my fence, and a bate is getting old, so I got some essential lumber to repair the fence and build a new gate. I bought some seeds to grow essential food too. I stood in line 6-feet apart while I waited to get in the store. Show me where you aren't able to do that currently.
I posted newer data, as that article is 4-days old, and using older data. This is simply more proof that we are further flattening the curve.@PJ Diaz Here, I'll link your own article back to you, ya dingus.
Coronavirus: Santa Cruz County’s case curve ‘among the very best’ in state
“There’s very optimistic news there, although it’s very early,” said Health Officer Gail Newel at a news conference Thursday. “We are among the very best counties in California in terms of flatteni…
But the places like Rome and NYC with the most severe lockdowns which have been in place since early March have not kept cases from skyrocketting. Cracking down on the public has not stopped people in those places from coming into contact with fomites. People will socially distance on their own if they understand what a fomite is whether a uniformed goon is there to force them to do so or not. People who do not will still not wash their hands and will still touch their faces. Closing all businesses and public places just forces people into fewer places. Leaving people with few options of where to get supplies just forces more people from wider areas into those places to come into contact with fomites they will then bring home. Strict lockdown, not flat curve.
Only very slightly, cases still doubling every 8 days. That's exponential growth. That's not flat. Furthermore, that slight gain can just as well be explained by the travel restrictions in the region.
Those officers just had those guys within two meters of eachother with no masks for extended periods of time. That's what I see.
at some point lock downs are the only way to slow the spread and not overwhelm the healthcare system. I’ve noticed Sweden is no longer brought up in ops examples of successful models, why? Here is just one of a multitude of references that lockdowns can help.
thats the datasheet for whole Germany:
Just by reading this it is clear that the lockdown had no effect. The testing allowed the spread to be controlled. Testing didn't interfere with the lockdown or distort the so called success of the lockdown. Testing was the solution. Testing was the very reason why the graph saw an inflection point. If the lockdowns were to have any effect on the transimissability of the virus it would not have taken weeks. The incubation period is 8 days on average. Those who were most susceptible to infection became infected until all of them were infected and the rest isolated themselves and washed their hands properly. There is no other way to interpret this data. They began their lockdown 24 days ago. There was no discernable change in transmission rates until they got testing caught up with the rate of infection.
That growth looks exactly like the sort of growth in places with lockdowns. NYC is seeing 1000+ new cases per day and it has one of the strictest lokdowns in the world. The lock down there started March 12, like this graph.
