War

printer

printer

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I'd like to think my assessment is optimistic, but still realistic, when you look at the situation. They don't need to reduce the Russian army to 0% to defeat it 50% might be enough for a collapse on a front. I've state in some detail my reasons for my assessment and the time table is more optimistic than many of the experts, but like the chief of Ukrainian intelligence, I think it will be largely over inside Ukraine by fall or early winter. They lost 30% of the force the started with and are continuing to attack and take loses, that is in less than 80 days. Vlad can't get any significant men to the fight in time and as far as I can tell much of the equipment is junk and he lost 80% of his elite forces by some estimates.

I also don't believe the Ukrainian offensive losses will be as great as the ratio for the Russians because of the superior range of the artillery and the extensive use of drones of various kinds. Also the tactics the Ukrainians use are smarter and more flexible.

I find this particular war fascinating for several reasons, I usually don't pay too much attention to the various conflicts. However this one is about the fight for liberal democracy, is historic, will change the map of Europe and the geopolitical situation dramatically. It will also change how wars are fought and why, for some places reserve forces will increase in importance for defense. New technologies are being used and it is kinda a proxy for a NATO soviet fight that many theorized about for decades and a place where ideas are put to the test.

That's aside from it being a crime against humanity and a human tragedy on an epic scale. It also an example of hubris blundering, incompetence and corruption on an epic scale too! This war is one that will make a difference for the future, others don't matter so much.
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The reports are "up to 30%" and when Putin parked his tanks in a 40 mile parking lot everybody was saying they sent conscripts and green 18 year olds that thought they were just going on manoeuvres, not the elite units. The Ukrainians have been saying 25k dead, which might be a little high due to each side saying how much better they are doing than the other, maybe shave that down to 20k. They had 120k before the invasion so maybe a little less than 20%. That is enough to hurt. But how much have the Ukrainians lost? We have no reliable figures. The big question is how much land is worth how many Ukrainian lives? Both sides are asking themselves that.

Zelinsky already said he would negotiate with the Russians back at their Feb 24 positions. Now I do not expect Putin to just meekly roll the military back to the pre-invasion line but I bet the Russians could hold them off if they we on that patch of land the separatists held. Would it be worth the Ukrainian lives (even the ones alive but scared) for the remaining land? Will the West continue to pour taxpayer's money for the remaining land? How about let Ukraine keep its borders without Crimea? After all, Russia only gave it to Ukraine in 1954.



An account why Ukraine may have received Crimea.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago

Stop the war giving Ukraine the Donbas and Russia Crimea?
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
printer said:
The reports are "up to 30%" and when Putin parked his tanks in a 40 mile parking lot everybody was saying they sent conscripts and green 18 year olds that thought they were just going on manoeuvres, not the elite units. The Ukrainians have been saying 25k dead, which might be a little high due to each side saying how much better they are doing than the other, maybe shave that down to 20k. They had 120k before the invasion so maybe a little less than 20%. That is enough to hurt. But how much have the Ukrainians lost? We have no reliable figures. The big question is how much land is worth how many Ukrainian lives? Both sides are asking themselves that.

Zelinsky already said he would negotiate with the Russians back at their Feb 24 positions. Now I do not expect Putin to just meekly roll the military back to the pre-invasion line but I bet the Russians could hold them off if they we on that patch of land the separatists held. Would it be worth the Ukrainian lives (even the ones alive but scared) for the remaining land? Will the West continue to pour taxpayer's money for the remaining land? How about let Ukraine keep its borders without Crimea? After all, Russia only gave it to Ukraine in 1954.



An account why Ukraine may have received Crimea.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/why-did-russia-give-away-crimea-sixty-years-ago

Stop the war giving Ukraine the Donbas and Russia Crimea?
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It's up to the Ukrainians I figure and if they are on a roll, they will want the whole nine yards. I guess we will see how much things are stalemated in a month. One thing to bear in mind though, Uncle Sam opened the door to Ukraine for a reason and that reason was so they could break Vlad's army. It's not just about territory any more, it's about the destruction of Vlad's army so that he can't project power outside his borders. The Ukrainians also realize this objective will give them the best long term security. Anybody who wanted to give parts of Ukraine away would face an election over it and the people there are far from desperate or wanting to compromise.
 
injinji

injinji

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
He's looking for money, his economy is on the rocks and a weak Russia is in his interest, Vlad might cut off his oil and gas, he also has an election next year I believe and he had better do something about the economy in Turkey. Norway financing his pet canal might change his mind in a hurry as would an EU loan or other assistance.
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It's all about the Kurds. But cash might make his objections go away.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
Budzbuddha said:
Time to get “ the Red Stain “ out ….
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I figure the Russians are in for an interesting month now that the big iron and drones have arrived, or enough of them to give em a taste and preview. They have lend lease, or will and from what I can tell their choice of the candy store, so 6 months from now things might be quite different. Things can happen fast in war, when you take advantage of breakthroughs, mistakes and technology and are prepared to exploit them.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
It's up to the Ukrainians I figure and if they are on a roll, they will want the whole nine yards. I guess we will see how much things are stalemated in a month. One thing to bear in mind though, Uncle Sam opened the door to Ukraine for a reason and that reason was so they could break Vlad's army. It's not just about territory any more, it's about the destruction of Vlad's army so that he can't project power outside his borders. The Ukrainians also realize this objective will give them the best long term security. Anybody who wanted to give parts of Ukraine away would face an election over it and the people there are far from desperate or wanting to compromise.
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Nato backed the Ukrainians when we thought they would put up a fight but in a week the Russians would run the place and Nato would be supplying insurgent material. Basically $ millions rather than $ Billions. But after a while if you are in you are in for a penny you are in for a pound. Will the populations of the supporting countries feel the same way if we are here in a year?
 
Budzbuddha

Budzbuddha

Well-Known Member
DIY-HP-LED said:
I figure the Russians are in for an interesting month now that the big iron and drones have arrived, or enough of them to give em a taste and preview. They have lend lease, or will and from what I can tell their choice of the candy store so 6 months from now things might be quite different. Things can happen fast in war, when you take advantage of breakthroughs, mistakes and technology and are prepared to exploit them.
Click to expand...
Interestingly the U.S. ( and other weapon suppliers ) are witnessing “ real world “ weapon testing of systems against actual Russian assaults.
Invaluable to military analysts, reliability and performance data . Not only the weaknesses of enemy armor , but strategic plans , weapon systems and whatever invaluable data VLAD stupidly laid down for NATO forces and future military developments to improve.

There new tank was destroyed shortly after arrival / Moskva “ high tech missile cruiser “ ( now an artificial reef for Nemo ) .
‘The IRON CURTAIN apparently is made out paper.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Budzbuddha said:
Interestingly the U.S. ( and other weapon suppliers ) are witnessing “ real world “ weapon testing of systems against actual Russian assaults.
Invaluable to military analysts, reliability and performance data . Not only the weaknesses of enemy armor , but strategic plans , weapon systems and whatever invaluable data VLAD stupidly laid down for NATO forces and future military developments to improve.

There new tank was destroyed shortly after arrival / Moskva “ high tech missile cruiser “ ( now an artificial reef for Nemo ) .
‘The IRON CURTAIN apparently is made out paper.
Click to expand...
Really going to be hard to unload a whack of Russian jack in the box tanks in the near future. Might get them real cheap though.
 
Budzbuddha

Budzbuddha

Well-Known Member
printer said:
Really going to be hard to unload a whack of Russian jack in the box tanks in the near future. Might get them real cheap though.
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Yeah … also their futile attempts to create “ cages “ ( scrap metal / laundry racks ) and or using pine branches to deflect turret damage …
Might as well have a Big Red Button in tank “ Self Destruct “ and save the memes .
 
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