War

Erdogan overplaying his cards. Strong cards but EU won’t set aside the real obstacles. If Erdogan would actively align Turkey with EU policy, talks would resume almost automatically. Which he knows, which makes me believe there are ulterior motives. Maybe just ask for a lot and settle for less, or force EU to show its hand, which is no longer wanting Turkey in EU regardless. EU doesn’t want to border Iraq, Syria and Iran.

See. They are still buds.

Putin met with Wagner leader after rebellion: Kremlin
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Yevgeny Prigozhin just days after the leader of the Wagner Group spearheaded a short-lived rebellion against Moscow, the Kremlin said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the three-hour meeting, which took place June 29, included 35 people. Commanders of Prigozhin’s mercenary group also took part in the meeting, Peskov said, which came days after Prigozhin led an armed rebellion with the goal of removing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu from power.

Peskov said Monday that during the meeting, Putin provided an “assessment” of the Wagner Group’s efforts in Ukraine and “of the events of June 24.” The Kremlin spokesman also noted Putin “listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them options for further employment and further use in combat.”

“The commanders themselves presented their version of what happened. They underscored that they are staunch supporters and soldiers of the head of state and the commander in chief, and also said that they are ready to continue to fight for their homeland,” Peskov said.

Prigozhin ended the rebellion after making a deal with Putin that reportedly included allowing the Wagner Group leader to go into exile and escape criminal prosecution. After the rebellion, Prigozhin was reported to be in Belarus, but Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said last week that the mercenary leader was in Russia.

It’s not clear whether Prigozhin’s reported travel to Russia would violate the deal struck with Putin. Since the rebellion took place, Putin has engaged in a smear campaign against Prigozhin as the mercenary leader’s public approval has dropped.

Sativied said:

Erdogan links Sweden's NATO membership to Turkey's EU accession

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, in an unexpected move, said on Monday the European Union should open the way for Ankara's accession to the bloc before Turkey's parliament approves Sweden's bid to join the NATO military alliance.

www.reuters.com

Erdogan overplaying his cards. Strong cards but EU won’t set aside the real obstacles. If Erdogan would actively align Turkey with EU policy, talks would resume almost automatically. Which he knows, which makes me believe there are ulterior motives. Maybe just ask for a lot and settle for less, or force EU to show its hand, which is no longer wanting Turkey in EU regardless. EU doesn’t want to border Iraq, Syria and Iran.

Click to expand...

it's always a bad idea to negotiate with terrorists or con men, and Erdogan seems like he might have a little (or a lot) of that going on.
I realize that things are done differently in different parts of the world, but if you want to join the international big boys club, you don't get to make the rules. Nato membership is about all they have going for them, they would be making a mistake alienating all of their allies over this.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

it's always a bad idea to negotiate with terrorists or con men, and Erdogan seems like he might have a little (or a lot) of that going on.
I realize that things are done differently in different parts of the world, but if you want to join the international big boys club, you don't get to make the rules. Nato membership is about all they have going for them, they would be making a mistake alienating all of their allies over this.

Click to expand...

Seems the only thing he can be trusted with is willingness to make deals. It’s a bit like Macron, he wants to show his country and his leadership is a main factor on the international stage. His methods are different though, less tactful. It’s almost like blackmail, coercion. Turkey is valuable to both NATO and EU and Erdogan knows that very well. EU needs Turkey to play ball (it’s in ways like our Mexico) so it’s not entirely unreasonable from Erdogan to want membership. Preventing Sweden from joining NATO just isn’t a fruitful method to get his way. As I said in the past regarding Ukraine, the main benefit for a country like Ukraine (pre-war anyway) and Turkey is foremost the process of becoming a member, not necessarily the membership itself. Nothing is stopping Turkey from meeting requirements and implement human rights, reforms and the gazillion EU regulations. Not starting with that has been the problem for nearly 2 decades of Erdogan and him blocking Sweden’s NATO membership isn’t going to change any of that - he’s being more ridiculous than usual, meaning the stakes are high.

His main objective, needed to keep the Turks who voted for them on his side, is fixing the economy he broke. His actual goal probably isn’t EU membership or keeping Sweden out of NATO but more access to the EU markets, or simply free money.

Sativied said:

Erdogan links Sweden's NATO membership to Turkey's EU accession

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, in an unexpected move, said on Monday the European Union should open the way for Ankara's accession to the bloc before Turkey's parliament approves Sweden's bid to join the NATO military alliance.

www.reuters.com

Erdogan overplaying his cards. Strong cards but EU won’t set aside the real obstacles. If Erdogan would actively align Turkey with EU policy, talks would resume almost automatically. Which he knows, which makes me believe there are ulterior motives. Maybe just ask for a lot and settle for less, or force EU to show its hand, which is no longer wanting Turkey in EU regardless. EU doesn’t want to border Iraq, Syria and Iran.

Click to expand...

Sweden has no land border with Russia, and they would have to go through a NATO country to get to them. They are a de facto NATO ally anyway, so I don't see the rush to get Sweden into NATO , or much leverage for Erdogan now that Finland is in NATO.

BudmanTX said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678091005768130564

Click to expand...

looks like Erdogan DOES think Ukraine has the upper hand...

Roger A. Shrubber said:

looks like Erdogan DOES think Ukraine has the upper hand...

Click to expand...

They supply Turkey with 90% of its grain and a lot of the Muslim world with its food. I think if Vlad caused a meltdown of the nuclear power plants in Ukraine it would contaminate much of this food supply for a long time. Russia might never get another ship out of or into the Black Sea again, since Turkey controls access and Erdogan knows who would be responsible. They might even wipe out the Russian Black Sea fleet over that kind of shit and could get fallout themselves and most of their food cut off. Vlad would have consequences from China Turkey and others if he used nukes or caused a meltdown. NATO would probably respond too, and he and others would be indicted by the Hague while losing the war, perhaps power or even their lives.

Roger A. Shrubber said:

looks like Erdogan DOES think Ukraine has the upper hand...

Click to expand...

i think he does know, prolly one of the reasons he want's restart EU talks again.....also he prolly got wind that Russia was steal the grain for profit too

looks like LOA is gonna strike again......we'll see

DIY-HP-LED said:

Sweden has no land border with Russia, and they would have to go through a NATO country to get to them. They are a de facto NATO ally anyway, so I don't see the rush to get Sweden into NATO , or much leverage for Erdogan now that Finland is in NATO.

Click to expand...

Certainly not as much leverage as Erdogan wants to appear to have, and I agree in practice it's not like Russia can attack Sweden without a similar international response. Erdogan would flip the same day and offer Sweden to send help.

But the land border argument isn't a great one imo. Sweden is still vulnerable by air and sea. Concentrated coastal urban areas and wind parks are vulnerable targets. They weren't a member straight away because they remained neutral during the cold war. Now they support Ukraine against Russia, that by itself is plenty of reason for wanting to join NATO immediately.

In any case, I don't even think the actual threat is that relevant. If Sweden wants to join NATO, if the Swedish people feel safer in NATO, they get to join NATO and anyone not happy about that, especially for no good reasons at all, can f off out of NATO.


"Sweden provides Erdogan with some rare leverage. And the Turkish president, officials are aware, is very good at using any leverage he has to extract things he wants from his Western allies. "

Sativied said:

Certainly not as much leverage as Erdogan wants to appear to have, and I agree in practice it's not like Russia can attack Sweden without a similar international response. Erdogan would flip the same day and offer Sweden to send help.

But the land border argument isn't a great one imo. Sweden is still vulnerable by air and sea. Concentrated coastal urban areas and wind parks are vulnerable targets. They weren't a member straight away because they remained neutral during the cold war. Now they support Ukraine against Russia, that by itself is plenty of reason for wanting to join NATO immediately.

In any case, I don't even think the actual threat is that relevant. If Sweden wants to join NATO, if the Swedish people feel safer in NATO, they get to join NATO and anyone not happy about that, especially for no good reasons at all, can f off out of NATO.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/10/europe/sweden-turkey-nato-summit-vilnius-analysis-intl-cmd/index.html

"Sweden provides Erdogan with some rare leverage. And the Turkish president, officials are aware, is very good at using any leverage he has to extract things he wants from his Western allies. "

Click to expand...

After Ukraine is done with them the Russians will be in no position to attack anybody for a decade and could fall apart as a country over that time period. I believe this war will end in Belarus with a coup or revolution, one of the reasons Wagner is there is because Vlad needs the army and internal security forces stationed there back home or in Ukraine. Attacking Sweden or its offshore infrastructure would lead to the closing of the Baltic for Russia along with the probable loss of Kaliningrad and if Belarus goes so does Kaliningrad. Who knows, Russia appears to be on the brink of a coup or revolution and in the chaos a lot of unexpected shit can happen. When the shit hits the fan in Ukraine with big Russian losses it could tip the balance back home and lead to some kind of political change. They are on the cusp of military catastrophe in Ukraine and their army is broken and largely destroyed with morale at rock bottom. When they are weak enough, the Ukrainians will strike, Ukraine has "shaved away" their outer defenses and minefields while cutting off their supplies with deep strikes.

DIY-HP-LED said:

After Ukraine is done with them the Russians will be in no position to attack anybody for a decade and could fall apart as a country over that time period. I believe this war will end in Belarus with a coup or revolution, one of the reasons Wagner is there is because Vlad needs the army and internal security forces stationed there back home or in Ukraine. Attacking Sweden or its offshore infrastructure would lead to the closing of the Baltic for Russia along with the probable loss of Kaliningrad and if Belarus goes so does Kaliningrad. Who knows, Russia appears to be on the brink of a coup or revolution and in the chaos a lot of unexpected shit can happen. When the shit hits the fan in Ukraine with big Russian losses it could tip the balance back home and lead to some kind of political change. They are on the cusp of military catastrophe in Ukraine and their army is broken and largely destroyed with morale at rock bottom. When they are weak enough, the Ukrainians will strike, Ukraine has "shaved away" their outer defenses and minefields while cutting off their supplies with deep strikes.

Click to expand...

I think it’s a little early to dismiss the threat of Russia on the short and long term as well as the value of NATO membership, but regardless, NATO wasn’t created, members didn’t join, for optimistic scenarios.

Looks like Erdogan got whatever he wanted.


“Sweden has one of the most capable militaries in Europe and its entry into NATO together with Finland will solidify the alliance’s control of the Baltic Sea.”

Sativied said:

I think it’s a little early to dismiss the threat of Russia on the short and long term as well as the value of NATO membership, but regardless, NATO wasn’t created, members didn’t join, for optimistic scenarios.

Looks like Erdogan got whatever he wanted.

Turkey agrees to back Sweden’s NATO membership bid

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agrees to drop his resistance to Sweden joining the alliance.

www.politico.eu

“Sweden has one of the most capable militaries in Europe and its entry into NATO together with Finland will solidify the alliance’s control of the Baltic Sea.”

Click to expand...

I don't see this war ending well for the Russian military, economy or government and Ukraine will strike them hard soon and are even going after the Kerch bridge again. They have 9 or 10 battalions of NATO trained and equipped strike force that are yet to be employed and a steady stream of replacements being trained in Europe. America seems to be employing a "just in time" supply strategy and cluster munitions are what they need to break through Russian defenses. They have recently got the capability to strike deep behind Russian lines to take out their logistics hubs. When the shit really hits the fan in Ukraine with the collapse of a front then things will happen in Moscow! In war things can change very fast and we are on the cusp of some big battlefield changes, all the conditions are in place for a Russian fiasco.

FPV Drones Destroy Multiple Russian Supply Trucks

106,964 views Jul 9, 2023
A series of FPV drone strikes on Russia's supply and logistics vehicles north of Kreminna.

Sativied said:

I think it’s a little early to dismiss the threat of Russia on the short and long term as well as the value of NATO membership, but regardless, NATO wasn’t created, members didn’t join, for optimistic scenarios.

Looks like Erdogan got whatever he wanted.

Turkey agrees to back Sweden’s NATO membership bid

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agrees to drop his resistance to Sweden joining the alliance.

www.politico.eu

“Sweden has one of the most capable militaries in Europe and its entry into NATO together with Finland will solidify the alliance’s control of the Baltic Sea.”

Click to expand...

makes ya wonder what that weasel got huh, i know it does me, from my reading Turkey is a strong supported of Ukraine to be in Nato as well...