Is the Keystone cancelation a good thing?

rkymtnman

rkymtnman

Well-Known Member
Khyber420 said:
But the way it was handled is just breaking a deal plain and simple
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Obama canceled it and Trump started it back up. now the left is back in charge. Biden has the right to cancel it.

Nobody wants that toxic sludge piped from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. the same pipeline dumped 400,000 gallons on the ground and keystone didn't even know it was leaking : a farmer told them.

so what if we lose a few temp jobs to welders. the actual full time employees was only projected at like 30 IIRC.

invest all that money in solar and wind energy.

get over it.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
rkymtnman said:
invest all that money in solar and wind energy.
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Ignoring losses, how to store it for when you need it, cloudy days.

Keystone - $5.2 billion, 800,000 barrels a day

"average price per watt for solar panels ranges from $2.40 to $3.22.Jan 13, 2021" (Industrial) 10W sq ft.

One barrel oil = 1,628,200 Wh (heating value)

12 hr day, 1,628,200 / 12 = 135,000 W

135,000 x $2.50 = $337,500 (one barrel)

$337,500 x 800,000 barrels = $270,000,000,000 or $270 billion

10W/sq ft.

1,628,200W / 10 = 162,820 sq ft / barrel

162,820 x 800,000 = 130,256,000,000 sq ft.

130,256,000,000 = 4,672 sq miles.

Connecticut = 4,845 sq miles

Just for kicks

In 2019, the United States consumed an average of about 20.54 million barrels day.

20.5 / 0.8 (barrels of Keystone) 25.6

25.6 x $270 billion = $6.9 trillion in solar cells.

Keystone area (4,672) x 25.6 (scale up to US oil consumption) = 124,1000 sq miles, New Mexico, 124,365 sq miles.

Of course 25% of the barrel is used for other products. Mind you kick in infrastructure and 0.5% degradation a year, conversion loses, angle of the sun, it all would eat up the 25%

Would be interesting to get in natural gas being produced for our CO2 budget, simple to just say double these numbers. Now, the mony the US has thrown at covid, $6 trillion. Take that money and throw it into solar cells, you just eliminated your oil addiction. Double that and natural gas is gone.
 
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Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
printer said:
Ignoring losses, how to store it for when you need it, cloudy days.

Keystone - $5.2 billion, 800,000 barrels a day

"average price per watt for solar panels ranges from $2.40 to $3.22.Jan 13, 2021" (Industrial) 10W sq ft.

One barrel oil = 1,628,200 Wh (heating value)

12 hr day, 1,628,200 / 12 = 135,000 W

135,000 x $2.50 = $337,500 (one barrel)

$337,500 x 800,000 barrels = $270,000,000,000 or $270 billion
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That would be an incomplete financial analysis.

Factor in the cost of safely disposing or sequestering the carbon emissions. Or factor in the contributions to the costs to society as the climate warms and cities become uninhabitable. Or factor in the cost to humanity for causing mass extinctions.

Nah, I don't want Keystone pipes and a back of the envelope calculation is not enough to change my mind.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
That would be an incomplete financial analysis.

Factor in the cost of safely disposing or sequestering the carbon emissions. Or factor in the contributions to the costs to society as the climate warms and cities become uninhabitable. Or factor in the cost to humanity for causing mass extinctions.

Nah, I don't want Keystone pipes and a back of the envelope calculation is not enough to change my mind.
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Yes, much more involved. Over half the barrel is fuel, engines are 30% efficient. Electric motors 95%, knock that down a little to get the power to the road. So you would need less watts electricity coming from the solar cells than from the barrel of oil.

You seem to miss my point on Keystone. I am looking at it from a CO2 into the air exercise. I am all for going green. But if you are transporting the oil by rail to the refineries you are dumping more CO2 into the air then going with the pipeline. In the short term while we are using the oil if knocks down emissions. I think we are more in danger from global warming than from the occasional spill. And the pipes that have been spilling, they are old pipes that get corrosion cracks. I would hope Keystone would only last 20 years.
 
Budley Doright

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
printer said:
Yes, much more involved. Over half the barrel is fuel, engines are 30% efficient. Electric motors 95%, knock that down a little to get the power to the road. So you would need less watts electricity coming from the solar cells than from the barrel of oil.

You seem to miss my point on Keystone. I am looking at it from a CO2 into the air exercise. I am all for going green. But if you are transporting the oil by rail to the refineries you are dumping more CO2 into the air then going with the pipeline. In the short term while we are using the oil if knocks down emissions. I think we are more in danger from global warming than from the occasional spill. And the pipes that have been spilling, they are old pipes that get corrosion cracks. I would hope Keystone would only last 20 years.
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I thought you had said all you had to say ;).
 
B

Billyjob007

Member
printer said:
I am one to for us to move away from oil as fast as possible. But what is going to replace it? Renewables are well and fine but our societies are energy hogs. Most of the people that say we can ween ourselves off of it do not show how much infrastructure needs to be produced to do it. I would be surprised if we could do it by 2050.

On the pipeline. There is less oil spilled by pipelines than by rail. When I see the tanker cars I see exploding bombs rolling by. And it is worse on the US side as the oil being produced is mainly by fracking. Fracking produces a light oil with a lot of gas in it, not the in your vehicle tank gas but propane and the like. It is the more volatile and explosive stuff rolling by. As for the Canadian stuff, it is more thicker. In fact, to move it through the pipes it has to be diluted. But the weight of the Canadian oil is desired at the Gulf refineries. They were designed to operate with the type of oil being pumped out of the ground at the time. There is a lot of oil being produced in the US but it is too light a grade for the refineries to operate efficiently.

So the Canadian oil is mixed in to bring it into spec. It is then refined and used in the US or exported. So the statement that it just allows Canadian oil to get out into the world market is true. But in its raw state it would not command much of a price. And that is where the refineries come in. They take both oils and when done they add value to both. So the US's balance sheet is less red, your selling stuff to the Chinese rather than only buying. The refineries can do without Canadian oil but they need to buy heavy oil from other countries, Venezuela has the same grade of oil the refineries mix in. So they can buy from Canada or Venezuela.

So pick where you want to buy from, Canada that has a balanced trade with the US (part due to the fact we sell the oil to you, a billion dollars goes across the border in trade every day) or to Venezuela that is not one of the US's biggest customer. Canada and the US trade is greater than the US and China, although Canada buys as much from the US as it sells, China's balance sheet has them buying a fraction.

So what will happen if the pipeline does not happen? The oil will still move by rail, the Gulf refineries need it. Canada will then need to twin the pipeline we have going to British Columbia. The oil will not get refined there, the cost of building a new refinery will never be recouped. The Chinese can justify it because then they can buy oil from Canada or other countries and not be beholden to the Middle East or the Us for refined products. So this oil game will still go on for quite a while. China even bought a 15% stake in the production in Alberta. And it is mainly American money that owns the oil patch up there. We allowed them to come in as a part of NAFTA, we got access to the US market but American companies could come in and buy up our companies. I did lose my job due to NAFTA coming in and a lot of sister plants closing and being supplied from the US ones. I went back to school to start a new career. I know a little of the oil refining end, my trade was in process controls, oil refining as one facet of it. So I know that the oil will flow with the pipeline or not. It is just going to send more carbon up in the air moving it by rail rather than pumping it.
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And guess what companies going to get that contract one of bidens big doners.
 
Budley Doright

Budley Doright

Well-Known Member
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Billyjob007 said:
And guess what companies going to get that contract one of bidens big doners.
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Contracts already signed, work done under Trump. These things are not decided at the last minute. Not to say Biden may not have gotten funds, think of it as a security blanket if he won.
 
printer

printer

Well-Known Member
Fogdog said:
That would be an incomplete financial analysis.

Factor in the cost of safely disposing or sequestering the carbon emissions. Or factor in the contributions to the costs to society as the climate warms and cities become uninhabitable. Or factor in the cost to humanity for causing mass extinctions.

Nah, I don't want Keystone pipes and a back of the envelope calculation is not enough to change my mind.
Click to expand...
The fact is that 3 million barrels get to the Gulf at $10 a barrel surcharge than if it went by pipe. The pipeline company said it will popwer the pumps using renewable energy. The extra $10 a barrel buts, 2-3 US gallons of gas? Turning a turbine to make electricity, going by rail adds two gallons of fuel for every barrel, 800,000 barrels a day, so at two gallons that is 1,600,000 gallons of diesel up in the air every day. Even more now that they said they will pump with a net zero emissions.

Unlike many Republicans I have seen the climate get warmer than when I was a kid. The upper latitudes see the changes more. There is a creek a block from my house that I took a picture of ten years ago in February. The reason I took a picture of it was because there was a patch of open water. Never seen that before. We used to walk on it. Now there is not a month that it opens up, it freezes up again but there is no way you can walk on it. Crops we grow now here. Farmers growing corn! This year, the robins still have not flown south for winter. I do get the climate thing, the oceans absorbing the CO2 and getting more acidic. It won't make too much difference to my life, I have no kids to worry about. But I worry for my fellow man. I hope things change. But saying that, to me the pipeline makes sense, the oil is moving to the south anyway.
 
Fogdog

Fogdog

Well-Known Member
printer said:
The fact is that 3 million barrels get to the Gulf at $10 a barrel surcharge than if it went by pipe. The pipeline company said it will popwer the pumps using renewable energy. The extra $10 a barrel buts, 2-3 US gallons of gas? Turning a turbine to make electricity, going by rail adds two gallons of fuel for every barrel, 800,000 barrels a day, so at two gallons that is 1,600,000 gallons of diesel up in the air every day. Even more now that they said they will pump with a net zero emissions.

Unlike many Republicans I have seen the climate get warmer than when I was a kid. The upper latitudes see the changes more. There is a creek a block from my house that I took a picture of ten years ago in February. The reason I took a picture of it was because there was a patch of open water. Never seen that before. We used to walk on it. Now there is not a month that it opens up, it freezes up again but there is no way you can walk on it. Crops we grow now here. Farmers growing corn! This year, the robins still have not flown south for winter. I do get the climate thing, the oceans absorbing the CO2 and getting more acidic. It won't make too much difference to my life, I have no kids to worry about. But I worry for my fellow man. I hope things change. But saying that, to me the pipeline makes sense, the oil is moving to the south anyway.
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I don't want that pipeline threatening our rivers, our sensitive areas and I don't want the pipeline builders to trample the sovereign rights of native americans on its way to enriching multinational oil companies. Simple as that.
 
DIY-HP-LED

DIY-HP-LED

Well-Known Member
doublejj said:
Biden wants to replace government fleet with electric vehicles
www.theverge.com

Biden wants to replace government fleet with electric vehicles

Biden wants to replace all 645,000 vehicles in the government’s fleet with EVs.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com
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I've been starting to look into solid state batteries, apparently there is a lot of buzz in the industry and products about to be introduced. If it's not some stock scam, we could be on the verge of doubling ranges and greatly increasing recharge cycles. They appear to have developed a flexible ceramic electrolyte similar to silicone rubber in texture.
Quantumscape's New EV Battery Is A Gamechanger
 
B

Billyjob007

Member
printer said:
Contracts already signed, work done under Trump. These things are not decided at the last minute. Not to say Biden may not have gotten funds, think of it as a security blanket if he won.
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Ok ether way. I got a serious problem in my life. New to growing. Got 2 coco grown down. This time I went to dwc and I'm running in to this..plz help
 

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